Daily Brief - Wednesday, 6/11/25
NQ Breaks Free: Soft CPI and China Deal Fuel Breakout Above 22,000
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
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News Docket
Wednesday - 6/11/25
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.4%, Actual: 2.4%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%, Actual: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%, Actual: 2.8%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%, Actual: 0.1%)
Thursday - 6/12/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 240.5)
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Friday - 6/13/25
10:00am EST - Univ Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 53.5)
Prior Session Analysis - Tuesday, 6/10/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,836.25
High: 21,992.25
Low: 21,742.75
Close: 21,964.50
Settlement: 21,962.50
Range: 249.5 pts / 998 ticks
Volume (Est.): 444,686
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +5,356
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,940.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,875.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,830.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Tuesday delivered a session that started as a lull and ended as a breakout. The first two hours of regular trading hours were characterized by low tempo and indecision, with price action confined to the Initial Balance. There was no directional conviction—just sideways chop as the market digested a quiet overnight and waited for a catalyst. The IB was only 75 points wide, when it’s that tight it’s usually a signal that we will breakout at some point if a catalyst emerges.
That catalyst came at 11:30am EST when headlines hit regarding U.S.–China trade talks. The market responded sharply, selling down to sweep the prior session’s low. But that move was quickly rejected. Responsive buyers stepped in aggressively, creating a long single-print buying tail from 21,742.75 up to 21,820.00 on the market profile—textbook auction behavior signaling support.
Price rebounded and worked its way back through the range, briefly probing above the IB before falling back inside. The next key moment came in the early afternoon when the market swept the prior session’s VAL, only to see it rejected as well. This double rejection—both at the session low and the VAL—gave the bulls a green light.
At 2:50pm EST, additional China-related headlines hit the tape. This time, buyers seized the opportunity, pushing price cleanly through the IB high. The breakout held through the close, capping a day that transitioned from balance to imbalance late.
From a structural standpoint, both the POC and Value Area rotated higher, confirming a directional upward shift. The long lower tail and late breakout both suggest responsive buyers are still in control, and the volume uptick confirms participation. With a solid gain in open interest (+5,356), the day likely brought in new longs rather than just short covering.
Volume & Participation
Volume: 444,686 — A meaningful rise compared to Monday, showing increased interest as the market reacted to macro headlines.
Open Interest: +5,356 — A strong gain suggesting real commitment from new participants, most likely on the long side.
Range: 249.5 points — An average-to-expanding range relative to the last few sessions, supporting the narrative of growing directional interest.
Final Thoughts
After a slow, choppy start, Tuesday's session evolved into a well-structured move higher, punctuated by responsive buying and confirmed by new participation. The long lower tail, rising value area, and late-session breakout are all constructive signs. But as always, this market remains headline-sensitive—particularly around U.S.–China relations.
The behavior we saw yesterday continues to support the view that this market is coiling with bullish intent but waiting for confirmation. Whether that comes from progress in trade talks or strong CPI data tomorrow remains to be seen. Until then, eyes stay glued to the news feed, and hands stay ready for quick reactions.
Today’s Analysis – Wednesday, 6/11/25
Market Context
At the time of this writing, overnight inventory is very long—currently ~120 points above yesterday’s settlement—with NQ trading firmly above the key 22,000 level. Two big catalysts have lit a fire under the market this morning.
First, CPI came in below expectations across the board, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative and giving bulls further confidence that inflation may be trending in the right direction. That alone would’ve likely powered a move higher.
But the real driver today is the news that a U.S.–China trade deal has been finalized. Trump announced this morning that the U.S. has accepted the terms and is now just waiting on formal approval from President Xi. Markets are treating that as a near-certainty, and risk appetite has surged as a result.
From a structure standpoint, the market has been coiling over the past few sessions—choppy, low-volume days filled with rejections at both ends of the range. Yesterday’s long lower tail and late breakout now look like the final accumulation phase before this morning’s explosive move.
The key now is acceptance: Can we hold above 22,000? Yesterday’s VAH and breakout area (21,940–21,960) will be the pivot zone to watch. Above that area, this breakout has legs. Below it, today could turn into a trap. It’s a critical day for confirming direction.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Bullish → Very Bullish (with caution)
I’m leaning confidently bullish going into today. CPI was soft, the trade deal is essentially done, and we’re breaking above major resistance. That’s a trifecta of tailwinds.
That said, patience off the open is key. On big news days like this, we often see knee-jerk rebalances, profit taking, and fast moves in both directions. I’ll be focused on whether price accepts above 22,000 and if we see clean continuation or a sharp pullback.
If we open well above yesterday’s range, I’ll be looking for a potential ORB long, failed gap fill long, or a VWAP reclaim setup if we get a dip. If price fades hard below 21,940, I’ll reassess—bullish conviction has to hold to keep the breakout valid.
Stay sharp. This is the kind of day where one good trade is all you need.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
22,644.75 → All-time high, could be within striking distance over the next few sessions.
22,454.50 → Most recent pivot high. Not a lot of structure up to based levels off of.
22,080.00 → Current overnight high; a near-term line in the sand for bullish continuation.
Downside:
22,000.00 → Major psychological level and critical breakout threshold. Holding above this confirms buyer strength.
21,962.50 → Yesterday’s settlement. Useful intraday reference, especially in early trade.
21,940.00 → Yesterday’s VAH and overnight value area magnet; key support now on any dip.
21,875.00 → Yesterday’s POC. Buyers controlled this zone late in the session.
21,830.00 → Yesterday’s VAL. If this breaks, caution—could suggest failed breakout.
21,770.00 – 21,760.00 → Bottom of yesterday’s single-print buying tail; strong rejection level. If breached, signals sellers back in control.
21,690.00 → Prior composite support and the top of Monday’s range. Last stop for bulls if things unravel.
Final Note on Today
This is the kind of session where planning matters less than preparation. With CPI coming in soft and Trump confirming acceptance of the China trade deal, we’ve got the two biggest market anxieties—monetary tightening and global trade tensions—both easing at once. NQ is reacting accordingly with a sharp move above the critical 22,000 level, clearing out weeks of resistance and putting new highs back on the table.
That said, after a breakout like this, you’ll want to be careful not to chase blindly. We could easily see an early fakeout, a sharp pullback to test breakout zones, or a midday fade as the market digests the news. Patience and execution will be key.
The tape should tell the story today—follow momentum, lean on VWAP for structure, and respect the key levels outlined above. This is a market waking up from its coil. Stay nimble and don’t assume you’re smarter than the collective reaction. Let the price show you the way.
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