Daily Brief - Wednesday, 5/14/25
Yesterday Ripped, Today Might Drift — Don’t Force It, Let the Tape Talk
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Thursday - 5/15/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 220k)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
Friday - 5/16/25
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.365M)
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 53.3)
Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Tuesday, 5/13/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,004.50
High: 21,346.50
Low: 20,972.75
Close: 21,270.75
Settlement: 21,278.00
Range: 373.75 pts (1495 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 527,626
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +7,600
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,350.50
Point of Control (POC): 21,275.25
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,250.25
Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Tuesday was a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the upside that held into the close, technically classifying it as a Normal Variation Up day.
Buyers were in control from the open until the final 30 minutes. This was some of the strongest institutional buying I’ve seen on the tape in months.
Profile highlights:
A single-print buying tail formed at the session low — potential support on any pullback
We put in a very weak high around 21,340, which I expect will be tested again.
It acted as resistance, but sellers didn’t reject price with authority. Instead, there was heavy absorption by resting offers, while buyers continued to hit the tape with size.
This is a classic case of value negotiation — buyers didn’t retreat, and sellers didn’t slam price. The tension at that level is likely to resolve soon.
5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
🚀 ORB Trade:
Finally, a textbook Opening Range Breakout (ORB) that actually followed through.
Gap was small, and we opened out-of-balance — a combo that historically increases ORB probabilities.
If you took it and held with patience, there was solid reward on the table.
🎯 Order Flow — Tape Reads That Mattered:
Off the open:
After price broke above 21,000, a wave of large orders hit the tape:
299, 79, 69, 69 lot blocks — these confirmed institutional participation and validated the ORB entry
I was already in, but added contracts when I saw those blocks print
During consolidation (~10:15–10:50 AM at 21,230):
Buyers stayed aggressive with multiple 50+ lot prints
Breakout confirmed at 10:50 with a 150-lot buy, followed by continuation
At 12:15 PM:
A massive 483-lot order printed
Price extended another 70 points — maybe late, maybe intentional, but big players were active all day
What was just as important was what we didn’t see — sellers were nearly absent for the first two hours.
Only around 11:00 AM did selling start to show up as we entered the day’s value area
Two-sided trade began to develop from there, but buyers still dominated
When you can clearly see the institutional side, join them.
Don’t overthink it. Don’t fade it. Just ride the flow. These setups happen once or twice a month — they’re where real money is made.
💡 On Prop Firms & “Consistency” Rules
Yesterday is the perfect example of why many retail prop firm models are flawed.
The best trading days — the ones that can make your month — are rare and asymmetric.
Real traders don’t make consistent gains every single day.
They stack edge when the market gives it. “Consistency rules” are often just traps to get traders to overtrade and fail.
If you’ve been in the game a while, you know:
A handful of great trades pay for a lot of mediocre ones.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +7,600 — solid increase in new business; likely long-side
Volume: ~527k — lower than Monday’s session, but still healthy
Range: 373 points — a decent range, though it felt larger because of the steady trend
Final Thoughts
Tuesday was a gift for traders who were prepared and tuned into the tape.
When the order flow is that obvious — and that one-sided — it’s not a time to hesitate.
Institutional buyers don’t often tip their hand so clearly, but when they do, you either jump on board or miss the train.
Don’t fight structure. Don’t fade strong tape. Recognize when you're being handed an edge — and lean into it.
Pre-Market Plan – Wednesday, 5/14/25
Market Context
I’m writing this later than usual — life got in the way this morning, and I appreciate your patience.
NQ opened in-balance with slightly long overnight inventory (~+40 points at the open). The question now is whether buyers step in again like yesterday or whether the market takes a breather or pulls back, especially given how stretched we’ve become on the higher timeframes.
For NQ to push higher, it will need to overcome 21,340, the weak high from Tuesday. We briefly traded above it off the open this morning, but price quickly dropped back below — that suggests it may once again be a battleground level.
Yesterday’s bullish continuation made my bearish lean wrong — but it didn’t cost me anything, because I stayed flexible and traded what I saw, not what I expected. That’s key.
I still believe we’re due for a pullback or some consolidation — and we probably need it before NQ can go higher with any structural integrity.
When that happens, though? That’s anyone’s guess.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
Since we opened in-balance, my plan is simple:
Be patient. Watch the tape. Wait for momentum and participation before entering any trade. If neither side shows intent, I’ll gladly sit on my hands. No position is a position.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside Targets:
21,340 — Weak high from yesterday; price tagged above it off the open but rejected quickly. Still looks like a key battleground.
Beyond that: no clean structure to lean on until we get a pullback or base.
I’d rather skip levels than list ones I don’t trust.
Downside Levels:
21,000 → 20,960 — Prior resistance zone, potential support
20,825 — Overnight support
20,755 → 20,690 — Key support from Monday’s session
(Gap still open below to ~20,340)
Final Note on Today
We’re in a strong tape, but that doesn’t mean chasing every move. If the market wants to rest or consolidate, that’s healthy — and likely needed.
Don’t guess. Don’t force. Let the momentum show up, and if it doesn’t, protect your capital and your energy.
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