Daily Brief - Wednesday, 4/9/25
The market’s moody — down overnight and consolidating around yesterday's low. With 17,000 in play and FOMC minutes ahead, this feels like a “wait and react” kind of day.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Wednesday - 4/9/25
New US Tariffs go into effect.
2:00pm EST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - 4/10/25
China's retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods take effect.
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 223k)
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Friday - 4/11/25
Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, marking the start of the first-quarter earnings season.
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.3%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 54)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Tuesday, 4/8/25
Session Stats
Session Open: 18,150.50
Session High: 18,357.25
Session VAH: 18,250.75
Session POC: 17,674.00
Session VAL: 17,449.50
Session Low: 16,973.50
Session Close: 17,239.50
Session Settlement: 17,243.75
Session Range: 1383.75 pts, 5535 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): -3,750 (NQ)
Est Volume: 959,276
📊 Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
This was a solid trend day with structure that made sense:
Failed Auction at the Highs: We saw early rejection just above 18,300 — the same general area where Monday’s session ran out of steam. The lack of a buying tail confirmed buyers simply dried up up there, not that sellers forced them out.
Buying Tail at the Lows: Around the 17,000–17,200 zone, buyers stepped in more convincingly. That created a single-print buying tail and a temporary floor into the close.
Opportunity: With nearly 1,400 points of range, traders had plenty of room to work with — provided they gave pullbacks space to play out. This was a great day for momentum setups on continuation.
🕵️♂️ 5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
On the 5-minute chart, the trend was as clean as it gets.
Price followed short-term EMAs lower almost all day.
Pullbacks were clear and offered solid with-trend entries for traders looking to catch the move.
Those 100-point gridlines? They make the candles look small — but they weren’t. I had to zoom out again just to fit the whole day’s range on the chart.
After the failed auction early in the session, we had a steady directional move down, a small bounce into the close (likely profit-taking), and no signs of reversal.
🔎 Volume & Participation
Open Interest: -3,750 contracts — suggests some covering or short-term liquidation
Volume: 959k contracts — slightly down from Monday but still substantial
Range: ~1,384 points — yes, still massive
💭 Final Thoughts
Tuesday gave us clarity — clean structure, clear trend, and no real surprises once the session got moving. If you were patient and stuck with the trend, there were multiple high-probability entries on the way down.
The question now: will 17,000 hold again, or are sellers gearing up for another leg lower?
Either way — stay sharp, stay selective, and don’t let volatility bait you into overtrading.
🚦 Pre-Market Plan – Wednesday, April 9, 2025
As of this writing, overnight inventory is short, with NQ trading roughly 300 points below Tuesday’s settlement price. Price is consolidating just beneath yesterday’s range, and unless we see a last-minute push higher, we’re set to open out-of-balance with a modest gap to the downside.
That said, there’s still time for positioning to shift before the bell.
Game plan: I’m waiting for the market to show its hand. No chasing early volatility, no forcing trades in chop. Let structure develop, and lean into conviction once it’s clear.
🧠 Bias & Mindset
Today, I’m coming in with a cautiously bearish bias — but staying flexible, as always.
We saw a potential round of short covering yesterday, supported by a dip in open interest. That doesn’t mean the trend is reversing — just that some traders took profit or reduced exposure. Trends need new business to sustain momentum, and one day of pullback in OI isn’t enough to call a shift. If that continues for multiple sessions, then I’ll reconsider.
The 17,000 zone remains key — it’s acted as a battleground for buyers and sellers the past two sessions. I won’t look to short unless we get a clear, high-conviction break below that level. Until then, I’m holding off and waiting to see where control shifts.
📰 What to Watch: FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM ET
The FOMC minutes drop this afternoon at 2pm EST, and while the Fed has taken a backseat to the Trump administration’s tariff headlines and macro shocks lately, we still need to watch for reactionary volatility.
The release could create sharp, short-lived swings as traders interpret the tone — especially if it includes surprises around inflation outlooks or policy hesitations.
Bottom line: be alert into the 2pm window. If you’re in a position, know your levels. If you’re flat, be patient and let the dust settle.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
You don’t have to trade this.
Cash is a position. And sometimes, it's the best one.
When volatility’s high and headlines are everywhere, it’s easy to feel the urge to “do something.” But here’s a simple rule that’s always served me well:
The higher the VIX, the more experience it takes to trade effectively.
Yes — volatility brings opportunity. But it also brings risk, emotional reactivity, and account volatility. If you’re trading a small account or just not feeling dialed in, it’s perfectly okay to observe and wait.
🔍 What About Key Levels?
Today, I’m again intentionally not sharing key levels — and here’s why:
The VIX has cooled slightly, now flirting below 40, but we’re still in an emotionally-driven market. Structure matters less when headlines can swing price hundreds of points in minutes. Levels that normally offer clean reactions may simply not hold.
I’d rather share no levels than offer ones I don’t believe in.
This is a sentiment-driven market. Trade it like one.
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