Daily Brief - Wednesday, 4/30/25

Overnight selloff on weak jobs data sets the stage. PCE and Big Tech earnings loom — today’s game is all about volatility management.

Apr 30, 2025

This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.

Upcoming News

Wednesday - 4/30/25

8:15am EST - US ADP Employment Change (Expected: 115k, Actual: 62k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Advance (Expected: 0.4%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.2%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
10:00am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.6%)
4:05pm EST - Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings
4:40pm EST - Meta Q1 2025 Earnings

Thursday - 5/1/25

8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 224.5k)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected: 50.7)
10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 48)
4:00pm EST - Amazon Q1 2025 Earnings
4:30pm EST - Apple Q2 2025 Earnings

Friday - 5/2/25

8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.2%)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 130k)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 4.5%)

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Tuesday, 4/29/25

Session Stats

Open: 19,426.75
High: 19,688.50
Low: 19,403.75
Close: 19,644.75
Settlement: 19,642.00
Range: 284.75 points (1,139 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 566,039
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +1,048

Value Area (Market Profile)

Value Area High (VAH): 19,649.75
Point of Control (POC): 19,556.50
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,500.25

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Tuesday’s session was a Normal Variation Day with late-day range extension to the upside.
The move developed after lunchtime and held into the close, with price settling near the highs — a potential sign of bullish momentum heading into today.

Two key profile zones stood out:

Support: Buyers stepped in firmly around 19,490–19,480
Resistance: Sellers capped price near 19,680 late in the session

This marks the sixth consecutive session of higher POC and value area rotation. Despite this upward grind, NQ has yet to reclaim the April 2nd “Liberation Day” close at 19,758 — still a key reference point.

Worth noting:

There’s a naked POC at 19,706 from April 2nd — just overhead.
On the daily chart, there’s a possible topping pattern emerging, with:
- Lighter volume
- Diminishing open interest gains

This morning’s PCE report (10:00 AM ET) and Microsoft/Meta earnings after the bell could act as major inflection points — either fueling the rally or capping it.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

Tuesday’s price action was choppy and difficult, with few high-probability setups and tight R:R trades.

Session broken into two segments:

Morning chop:
Price ranged between:
- Resistance: Weekly Kickoff High at 19,612
- Support: Prior session POC at 19,480
  Lots of fakeouts and low-quality setups here.
Afternoon lift:
Around 1:15 PM, NQ finally broke above the 19,612 level, gaining some momentum.
Price topped around 19,685, which became the new resistance.
From there, price stayed range-bound into the close, with 19,612 flipping into support.

Overall, a tough session for directional trades, with the only real opportunity being the midday uptrend, which offered limited but clean movement.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest: +1,048 — still positive, but smaller than prior sessions
Volume: ~566k — a slight increase from Monday
Range: 284 points — relatively tight, reflecting a balanced session overall

Final Thoughts

Tuesday’s action leaned bullish but lacked conviction.
The market’s stuck between upward drift and underlying hesitation — likely awaiting today’s PCE data and Big Tech earnings to pick a direction.

The key now is reaction, not prediction — especially around prior resistance zones (19,706 / 19,758) and the breakout area at 19,612.

Pre-Market Plan – Wednesday, 4/30/25

Market Context

As of this writing, overnight inventory is heavily short — with price trading ~185 points below yesterday’s settlement.

At 8:15 AM, ADP Employment data came in at just half of expectations, signaling weakness in the labor market. This pushed NQ sharply lower.

While technically still within yesterday’s range, price is approaching the lower edge fast, and we could easily open out-of-balance with a gap down by the RTH open.

Today brings multiple catalysts:

10:00 AM ET – PCE data (expect volatility)
After the bell – Microsoft and Meta earnings
Tomorrow – Amazon and Apple report

With headline risk already elevated, today has all the makings of a volatile, catalyst-driven session. Be ready.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral
My plan today hinges on the opening structure:
- If we open out-of-balance, I’ll look for:
  - Opening Range Breakout (ORB) in the direction of the gap
  - Following gap rules for directional bias
- If those don’t trigger cleanly, I’ll stay patient and wait for the market to establish value and show direction.
Important:
I will be flat before the 10:00 AM PCE release, and I strongly recommend others do the same — it will likely be a volatility spike.
My Focus:
- Only interested in clean momentum setups
- Will avoid chop or indecision
- If we see similar tight-range action as Tuesday, I’ll sit on hands — but with today’s event load, that seems unlikely.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside:

20,510.00 — Resistance from March 25th & 7th
20,000.00 — Major psychological level
19,685.00 — Sellers defended this area yesterday into the close
19,612.00 — Weekly Kickoff High; flipped above briefly yesterday but now back below in overnight. May act as resistance again if retested

Downside:

19,400.00 — Near yesterday’s low; break below would indicate sellers are repricing fair value based on new data
19,275.00 — Strong support & pivot from Monday
19,230.00 — Friday’s support / mid-April resistance / weak low area
19,000.00 — Psychological magnet
18,750.00 — April’s recurring support base

Final Note on Today

With multiple catalysts on deck, today could be decisive for near-term market direction.
Stay focused, manage risk tightly, and don’t overtrade. Opportunities will likely come — but they’ll favor discipline over aggression.

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