Daily Brief - Wednesday, 2/19/25
Another day of increased new business in NQ has us well over 30k contracts added in the last four sessions. Are we coiling up for a drive higher or will Trump's tariff talks ruin it?
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Wednesday - 2/19/25
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.397M)
2:00pm EST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - 2/20/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 215k)
8:30am EST - US Continued Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.879M)
Friday - 2/21/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51.2)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 67.8)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.13M)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Tuesday, 2/18/25
Session Open: 22,257.75
Session High: 22,268.00
Session VAH: 22,215.00
Session POC: 22,177.50
Session VAL: 22,155.00
Session Low: 22,102.75
Session Close: 22,238.75
Session Settlement: 22,232.25
Session Range: 165.25 pts, 661 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +5,063 (NQ) / +3,132 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 560,671
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Normal day. Besides a quick probe to the downside around 2pm EST, price stayed inside the Initial Balance for the duration of the session.
It was another day of minimal trade opportunities for day traders. There was a good opening range breakout trade on the move to the downside off the open. After that, a lot of sideways chop for the remainder of the session. Momentum traders did not get any clear directional moves to jump on and range traders did not have clear extremes to trade.
We did see a late spike to the upside into the close. This sometimes can indicate bullish sentiment going into the next session.
It was another day of new business being added with an additional +5k contracts opened in NQ. That puts us at over +30k contracts added to NQ in the last four trading sessions.
Volume in NQ was also the highest it has been since Feb 7th, with 560k contracts traded.
Plan for Today - Wednesday, 2/19/25
At the time of this writing overnight inventory is flat, slightly below yesterday’s close and within yesterday’s value area.
If we open in-range, the plan for today will be to be patient and wait for better trade locations as the session progresses.
Levels I will be watching:
22,318 - yesterday’s overnight high, I would look for this to be a potential area of resistance if price auctions higher in today’s session. A break above could indicate a drive to test all-time highs around 22,450.
22,268 - yesterday’s high, this was an area of support in yesterday’s overnight session and has been a level of resistance in today overnight session.
22,215 - yesterday’s value area high. this was an area of resistance in yesterday’s session until the late afternoon spike took it out and then was an area of support until early this morning.
22,155 - yesterday’s value area low. this was an area of support a few times in yesterday’s regular session.
22,102 - strong area of support in yesterday’s session.