Daily Brief - Tuesday, 7/29/25
NQ Hits New Highs Before the Storm: Most Loaded Week of 2025 Awaits
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
I honestly can't remember a week that's been this loaded with potential market movers. We're talking about the kind of data releases and events that could literally set the tone for the rest of the year. Between FOMC, mega-cap earnings, PCE data, jobs numbers, and that tariff deadline everyone's been obsessing over—it's like someone decided to cram six months' worth of catalysts into four days.
If you're smart about this, now's the time to make sure you're not overextended. Wednesday through Friday could get pretty volatile, and you want to be in a position where you can actually take advantage of any big moves instead of just trying to survive them. Sometimes the best trade is making sure you've got the ammo ready when the real opportunities show up.
Tuesday - 7/29/25
10:00am EST - US JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 7.5M)
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 96)
Wednesday - 7/30/25
TBD - US/China Trade Talks (Tentative)
8:15am EST - US ADP Employment Change (Expected: 75k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Advance (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US Treasury QRA (Expected: —)
2:00pm EST - FOMC Rate Statement
2:00pm EST - US Interest Rate Decision (Expected: 4.5%)
2:30pm EST - Press Conference w/ Chairman Powell
4:00pm EST - Qualcomm Q3 2025 Earnings (Call @ 4:45pm)
4:05pm EST - Microsoft Q4 2025 Earnings (Call @ 5:30pm)
4:05pm EST - Meta Q2 2025 Earnings (Call @ 5:00pm)
Thursday - 7/31/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY(Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 223.5k)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.4%)
9:45am EST - US Chicago PMI (Expected: 42)
4:00pm EST - Amazon Q2 2025 Earnings (Call @ 5:00pm)
4:00pm EST - Apple Q3 2025 Earnings (Call @ 5:00pm)
Friday - 8/1/25
US Tariffs Start Deadline
8:30am EST - US Average Earnings YoY (Expected: 3.8%)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 107k)
8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.2%)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected: 49.5)
10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 49.5)
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 61.9)
Prior Session Analysis - Monday, 7/28/25
Session Stats
Open: 23,472.75
High: 23,529.00
Low: 23,436.75
Close: 23,491.75
Settlement: 23,491.25
Range: 92.25 points / 369 ticks
Volume: 424,662
Open Interest Change: +6,004 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 23,500.00
Point of Control (POC): 23,475.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 23,460.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Monday felt like a session where everyone was just kind of hanging around, waiting for something more interesting to happen. The market opened in balance near the top of Friday's range and spent the day doing what looked like polite rotation between fairly tight boundaries. But don't let that late-session spike fool you into thinking it was more balanced than it actually was—price spent most of the day grinding around the lower end of the range.
The session kicked off with a nice drive higher to new highs, reaching 23,529 just after 10 AM. But that high had all the conviction of a wet paper towel—it was immediately rejected and price rotated back down to find support at 23,440 around 11:20 AM. From there, it was mostly sideways chop with a downward bias until that late-day spike saved the session from looking completely bearish.
What's interesting is that this was the fourth straight session where both value area and POC rotated higher, but the value area actually narrowed, which tells us participation is decreasing. It's like the market is moving up more out of habit than conviction. The lack of excess on either end of the profile suggests this was just positioning ahead of a week that's packed with news events and data releases.
The value area tightened up significantly, running from 23,460 to 23,500 with the POC sitting right in the middle at 23,475. That's a pretty compressed range, and when you combine it with the lower volume, it paints a picture of a market that's consolidating rather than trending.
The fact that we're still building higher value for the fourth consecutive session is encouraging for the bulls, but that narrowing value area suggests we might be approaching a point where the market needs to make a bigger decision about direction.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 424,662 – second lowest in the last five sessions, confirming the lack of engagement
Open Interest: +6,004 contracts (NQU5) – healthy increase suggesting new longs are still entering despite the sleepy price action
Price Range: 92.25 points / 369 ticks – smallest range I’ve seen in a long time
The combination of lower volume with increasing open interest is actually pretty bullish. It suggests that while fewer people are trading, those who are active are making longer-term commitments to the long side. That's typically institutional behavior when they're not in a hurry but still want exposure.
Final Thoughts
Monday was one of those sessions that looked boring on the surface but had some decent underlying currents. The market continues to build higher value, institutions keep adding long exposure, and any weakness is seen as opportunity to increase positioning. Sure, it wasn't exciting, but sometimes the best moves happen when everyone's looking the other way.
The resistance at 23,525 was weak rather than aggressive, which suggests it's more of a pause than a hard ceiling. And that support at 23,440 held with some conviction, giving the bulls a decent foundation to work with.
Today’s Analysis – Tuesday, 7/29/25
Market Context
Well, this is more like it. The NQ is set to open significantly higher this morning, currently trading at 23,596, about 105 points above yesterday's settlement. The overnight range between 23,609 and 23,503 puts us in clear out-of-balance territory to the upside, and we're basically sitting at the doorstep of uncharted territory above 23,609.
The volatility environment tells the whole story—the VIX hasn't been this low since February 14th. That's a pretty clear signal that fear has left the building and been replaced by something approaching complacency. We're in a textbook positive gamma environment where dealer behavior continues to support any meaningful pullbacks.
What's driving this optimism? Most of the major headwinds that were weighing on the market seem to be clearing up. Trade deals are getting done, the Powell drama has quieted down, and economic data continues to show a healthy economy. It's like all the things that were causing worry a few weeks ago have either been resolved or faded into the background.
But here's the thing—we're heading into what might be the most loaded week of 2025. Today kicks off with JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence data. Wednesday brings the main event with FOMC, Powell's press conference, and potential US/China trade talks, plus mega-cap earnings from Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Meta. Thursday piles on with PCE data (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and earnings from Amazon and Apple. And Friday? NFP data AND the August 1st tariff deadline that everyone's been talking about for months.
The market’s eyes are on the horizon readying for this tsunami of potential volatility.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Bullish
I'm staying bullish with medium confidence, and here's the thing—this market just keeps wanting to go up, and I'm not seeing compelling reasons to fight it. The fundamental picture is improving, the technical structure is supportive, and the flow of funds continues to favor risk assets.
That said, I wouldn't be shocked to see one of NQ's famous "V-day" scenarios play out. You know how it goes—we gap higher, maybe try to fill that gap in the morning, and then reverse and grind up to new highs for the rest of the session. It's almost become a signature move for this market.
Regardless of what happens off the open today, the key is recognizing that until gamma positioning and sentiment change dramatically, this environment favors the long side. Any pullbacks are likely to be bought, and fighting the higher timeframe trend is probably not the best use of capital right now.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
Above 23,609.00 — We're in all-time high territory here, so traditional level-setting becomes pretty useless
23,609.00 — Overnight high and the current line in the sand
Downside:
23,529.00 — Yesterday's session high, first meaningful support
23,503.00 — Overnight low and right around yesterday's VAH (not a coincidence)
23,460.00 — Yesterday's VAL, more substantial support if we get a bigger pullback
Final Thoughts on Today
This market is absolutely roaring right now, and it's doing so right before what might be the most event-packed week of the year. Some people are calling it irrational exuberance, and maybe they're right, but ignoring it would be pretty unwise. From a trading perspective, it doesn't get much easier than this—volatility is suppressed, dips get bought, and the gamma environment is working in favor of higher prices.
We're set to open out-of-balance with a nice gap higher, which sets up some interesting possibilities. I'll be looking for either an opening range breakout to the upside or one of those classic gap-fill-then-reverse patterns that this market loves so much.
The irony here is that we're hitting new highs just as we're about to face the biggest week of potential market-moving events in months, if not the entire year. FOMC on Wednesday, mega-cap earnings throughout the week, and that August 1st tariff deadline on Friday that's been looming for so long.
But until we get some major shift in sentiment or positioning, the path of least resistance continues to be up. Just keep in mind that with this much news flow coming, things could get volatile pretty quickly.
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