Daily Brief - Tuesday, 7/15/25
Thanks to NVIDIA, NQ Discovers There Are Numbers Above 23,100.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Tuesday - 7/15/25
6:00am EST - Blackrock Q2 2025 Earnings
6:55am EST - JPMorgan Q2 2025 Earnings
7:00am EST - Wells Fargo Q2 2025 Earnings
8:00am EST - Citi Q2 2025 Earnings
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Wednesday - 7/16/25
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
Thursday - 7/17/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 234k)
Friday - 7/18/25
July OPEX
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.298M)
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 61.5)
Prior Session Analysis - Monday, 7/14/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,942.75
High: 23,066.50
Low: 22,842.25
Close: 23,034.25
Settlement: 23,035.50
Range: 224.25 points / 897 ticks
Volume: 414,873
Open Interest Change: +7,116 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 23,060.00
Point of Control (POC): 23,035.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 22,950.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Monday's session delivered a powerful demonstration of institutional conviction, developing into a normal variation day with upside range extension that encompassed Friday's entire range both above and below. The session's "P"-shaped profile told a compelling story of buyer dominance once the initial weakness was absorbed, with participants using the early dip as yet another accumulation opportunity.
The opening auction began at 22,942.75 and immediately tested lower, probing below Friday's session low to 22,842.25. However, just as in Friday's session, this exploration of lower prices met with swift and decisive rejection from buyers. The key difference was what happened next: rather than the rotational trading that characterized recent sessions, buyers took firm control and drove price steadily higher throughout the day, never returning to retest the morning lows.
What made this session particularly noteworthy was the sustained buying pressure that persisted even as volume dropped into the afternoon hours. Sell side conviction was simply no where to be found. Price continued its methodical auction higher, reaching 23,066.50 before encountering resistance. Critically, when the session high was established around 3:00 PM, the market didn't exhibit the typical profit-taking selloff seen in recent sessions. Instead, price consolidated in a controlled manner just below the highs—a clear sign of accumulation rather than distribution.
Yesterday’s Value Area rotated decisively higher, with both VAH and POC moving up while VAL remained anchored at Friday's 22,950.00 level. The VAH advanced to 23,060.00, matching the area where volume dropped off significantly on the buy side, while the POC settled at 23,035.00—positioned in the upper portion of the value area and confirming the session's bullish bias.
The fact that VAL held steady at 22,950.00 while the upper parameters moved higher suggests the market has established a new floor in this area, with participants unwilling to conduct business meaningfully below this level. This value area migration higher, combined with the sustained higher positioning, indicates growing confidence in elevated fair value.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 414,873 – lower than Friday's session but within the average range dating back to June 24th
Open Interest: +7,116 contracts (NQU5) – substantial increase representing significant new business, almost certainly new long positions
Price Range: 224.25 points / 897 ticks – expanded range reflecting the session's directional character and breakout above recent parameters
The massive open interest increase tells the most important story of the session. Despite facing a loaded economic calendar this week, participants demonstrated remarkable confidence by adding over 7,000 contracts of new long positions. This represents one of the largest single-day increases in recent weeks and suggests institutional players are positioning aggressively for higher prices despite the upcoming volatility catalysts.
Final Thoughts
Monday's session exhibited institutional accumulation under pressure. The market's ability to absorb early weakness, reject lower prices decisively, and then sustain buying pressure throughout the day—all while adding substantial open interest—suggests a significant shift in participant conviction. The controlled consolidation near the highs, rather than the typical profit-taking selloff, was particularly telling.
The session's structure, with clear upside range extension and value area migration higher, indicates the market may be breaking out of the recent consolidation phase. Most importantly, the willingness of participants to add significant long exposure ahead of CPI data and earnings season demonstrates remarkable confidence in the underlying bullish structure in the face of a potential increase in volatility over the next two weeks. This type of institutional commitment often precedes more sustained directional moves.
Today’s Analysis – Tuesday, 7/15/25
Market Context
The NQ is positioned for a dramatic out-of-balance opening to the upside this morning, currently trading at 23,166.00, approximately 130 points above yesterday's settlement. This represents a clear breakout above the 23,100-22,850 range that has contained the market for the last seven trading sessions, with overnight action reaching as high as 23,204.50 before pulling back to current levels around 22,995.50.
The catalyst for this overnight surge was NVIDIA's announcement at 9:35 PM yesterday that they secured White House approval to sell H20 AI GPU chips to China—a development that sent the entire tech complex rocketing to new all-time highs. This morning's CPI data came in at or slightly above expectations, but the market's reaction has been notably balanced, suggesting participants are more focused on the NVIDIA-driven narrative than the inflation numbers.
We remain in a positive gamma environment where dealer behavior continues to support dips, but the market's positioning has become increasingly lopsided to the long side. The overnight breakout, combined with yesterday's massive open interest increase, suggests institutional inventory is heavily weighted toward long positions. While this creates upside momentum potential, it also introduces the risk of sudden long liquidation if a meaningful catalyst emerges.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral → Bullish
I'm adopting a neutral-to-bullish bias with medium confidence, reflecting both the technical breakout and the fundamental strength demonstrated by yesterday's institutional accumulation. The overnight NVIDIA news provides a compelling narrative for the breakout above the established range, while the positive bank earnings this morning add to the constructive backdrop.
However, the market's increasingly lopsided positioning warrants caution. When inventory becomes too heavily weighted in one direction, the market tends to deliver surprise moves that catch traders off guard. In this case, that would manifest as a long liquidation day, though the current strength suggests it would require a significant catalyst to trigger such an event.
The key today will be watching whether price can find acceptance above the 23,100 level or if we see rotation back into the established range.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
New All-Time High Territory — Difficult to set confident levels above current market, will watch for intraday establishment
23,192.00 — Overnight high and trigger for continued range breakout
Downside:
23,066.50 — Yesterday's session high and VAH, acceptance below could indicate fair value returning to yesterday's levels
22,995.00 — Overnight low, trigger for potential range breakdown
22,950.00 — Yesterday's VAL, acceptance below could indicate lower fair value today
Final Thoughts on Today
Today represents a potential inflection point where the market tests whether it can break out of the seven-session range that has defined recent action. The overnight NVIDIA news provides a fundamental catalyst for the technical breakout, while yesterday's institutional accumulation suggests participants were positioning for exactly this type of move.
The challenge will be determining whether this represents genuine acceptance of higher fair value or merely an overnight gap that will be filled during regular trading hours. Watch for opening range breakout opportunities and gap fill trades, but remain alert to the market's increasingly long positioning. While the current momentum is compelling, any meaningful catalyst that challenges the bullish narrative could trigger swift long liquidation given the market's current inventory structure. Today's action will be crucial in determining whether we're entering a new phase of the bull market or simply experiencing another false breakout that will be absorbed by the established range.
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