Daily Brief - Tuesday, 6/24/25
Overnight Rally Tests NQ Breakout Zone Amid Fragile Ceasefire
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Tuesday - 6/24/25
10:00am EST - US Consumer Confidence (Expected: 99.8)
10:00am EST - Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress
Note: Possible 8:30am text release
Wednesday - 6/25/25
10:00am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.693M)
10:00am EST - Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress
Thursday - 6/26/25
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: 8.5%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 245k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Final (Expected: -0.2%)
Friday - 6/27/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.3%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
Prior Session Analysis - Monday, 6/23/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,869.25
High: 22,093.00
Low: 21,738.25
Close: 22,072.75
Settlement: 22,073.75
Range: 354.75 points / 1,419 ticks
Total Volume: 550,371 (lowest since June 12th)
Open Interest Change (NQU5): +6,812 contracts
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 22,086.00
Point of Control (POC): 22,053.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,888.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Monday's session delivered a wide-ranging, macro-driven day with multiple directional auctions and notable responsiveness at key historical levels. It was a Neutral Day structure, with clear range extensions both above and below the Initial Balance (IB) — signaling indecision but also opportunity for active traders.
The session began with a fast-moving auction up, holding support at the prior session's low nearly to the tick during A period (21,869.25 open), then launching above 22,000. Responsive sellers stepped in during C through G periods, sending price sharply lower in reaction to headline risk — a selloff that found support just above the June 5th low (21,738.25).
Notably, price respected three key levels from prior sessions:
A period's low tagged the 6/21 session low.
G period low bounced just above the June 5th low.
H period's pullback held right at the 6/13 low.
Buyers regained control in H period, initiating a strong rally back above 22,000 and establishing a final balance zone from ~22,020 to ~22,090. The auction higher in H through I periods reflected renewed confidence, possibly tied to easing macro fears. After 1:30pm, however, the tempo fell off sharply — classic afternoon balance ahead of potential news catalysts.
There was some excess on both ends of the profile:
Bottom: Three single TPOs in G period — a potential sign of seller exhaustion or short-term responsive buying.
Top: A single TPO in M period hints at a poor high and price may head higher beyond the 22,090 area.
Despite strong directional moves early and mid-session, the session closed near highs, making it tempting to interpret as bullish. But the Neutral Day structure with large intraday swings reminds us that conviction was not one-sided — rather, it was a day of reactive, headline-driven activity.
Volume & Participation
Volume: 550,371 — the lowest session volume since June 12th, suggesting thinning participation despite the large range.
Open Interest (NQU5): +6,812 — a modest rise, which may reflect short-term positioning or hedging after the volatile macro response.
Range: 354.75 points (1,419 ticks) — significantly expanded relative to recent sessions, in line with Neutral Day behavior and responsive two-sided trade.
Despite the range and visible momentum trades, the low volume likely reflects reduced participation from larger players who are hesitant to commit size amid geopolitical uncertainty and after last week’s heavy FOMC/OPEX positioning.
Final Thoughts
Monday’s session was a textbook example of headline-driven price discovery within a wider market balance. Auction theory held up well — prior levels were respected with precision, and the market moved in structured directional bursts, followed by calm. But the lower volume is a sign that not everyone was playing.
With macro risk still elevated — particularly in the Middle East — and the market oscillating between hope and fear, expect continued reactive trade. Until buyers can consistently hold above 22,100 with volume, conviction remains in check. Caution and flexibility are the name of the game in this environment.
Today’s Analysis – Tuesday, 6/24/25
Market Context
We are coming into the RTH session with extremely long overnight inventory — roughly 237 points above yesterday’s settlement and ~220 points above yesterday’s range, currently trading near 22,310. Historically, when overnight inventory is this stretched (as in >200 points), the likelihood of a retracement is around 82%. That doesn’t guarantee a full gap fill, but it does suggest we should remain alert for a potential move back toward yesterday’s value area or settlement early in the session.
The overnight move is in direct response to Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. This has cooled tensions in the short term, helping drive bullish sentiment globally. Importantly, oil prices have pulled back, which confirms that the market is seeing this conflict as potentially short-lived or containable — a strong signal that global risk appetite may stabilize if the ceasefire holds.
That said, headline risk remains elevated. The ceasefire is fragile, and with both sides having escalated recently, it could unravel quickly. Traders need to stay nimble — the macro backdrop is still very fluid.
On the daily chart, NQ has been in a broad consolidation range since June 3rd, trading between 21,740 and 22,200. This overnight move puts us squarely at the upper boundary of that range, presenting a potential breakout opportunity. The last swing high was 22,323.75 on June 11th, and we are nearing that level in the premarket. Today’s RTH session could be pivotal: a failure to break out may lead to a swift reversion back into range, while a strong acceptance above could open the door to new short-term highs.
In addition to macro headlines, we have two key domestic catalysts today:
Consumer Confidence report at 10:00am
Powell testifies in front of Congress beginning at 10:00am (prepared remarks may hit at 8:30am)
Both of these events can drive substantial movement, especially in a market that’s already stretched. If Powell’s tone surprises in either direction or if confidence data shows unexpected softness or strength, we could see volatile reactions.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Cautiously Neutral to Bullish (Short-Term)
Overnight price action suggests the market is trying to reprice recent risk to the upside. However, we’re well above range and value, and the historical tendency for retracement in this setup is strong on the higher timeframe. My plan is to:
Stay flat before 10am data
Watch for signs of responsive selling back toward settlement or VAH early
Remain open to the upside resuming later in the day if structure builds above 22,300 and Powell doesn’t spook markets
This is not a day to force trades early. Let the market show its hand — either hold the gap and build structure, or retrace and test support zones.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
22,709.00 - Pivot high from Feb 21st, likely not in play today
22,500.00 - Psychological round number and untested resistance
22,384.50 - Overnight High
22,323.75 - Pivot high set on June 11th.
Downside:
22,093.00 - Yesterday’s High
22,086.00 - Yesterday’s VAH
22,065.75 - Overnight Low
22,052.00 - Middle of Yesterday’s POC and high volume node.
Final Thoughts on Today
Yesterday was a great reminder that expectations can get punished in this market. A session many expected to open weak turned out to be a strong bull move. Today could follow a similar path — or do the opposite — depending on how traders respond to the ceasefire narrative, the consumer confidence print, and Powell’s testimony.
Trade location is crucial. With such a large overnight gap, the first 30–60 minutes will be critical for establishing whether we’re accepting these higher prices or if this was a knee-jerk repricing that will mean revert.
Stay flexible, stay informed, and never let a macro headline catch you over-leveraged.
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