Daily Brief - Tuesday, 6/17/25
Buyers Exhausted? Opening Drive Fizzles Ahead of Fed
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Catch me on Twitter @TheShmuts during the day covering the session as it develops.
News Docket
Tuesday - 6/17/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: -0.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales MoM (Expected: -0.2%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: 0%)
Wednesday - 6/18/25
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.359M)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 245k)
2:00pm EST - FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Expected: 4.5%)
2:30pm EST - FOMC Press Conference w/ Chairman Powell
Prior Session Analysis - Monday, 6/16/25
Note to Readers:
Starting today, I’ll be shifting coverage to the NQU5 contract, including yesterday’s stats and analysis. With both volume and open interest now surpassing NQM5, NQU5 has officially taken the lead in liquidity. If you haven’t rolled yet, now’s the time—NQM5 expires this Friday.
Session Stats
Open: 22,014.75
High: 22,222.00
Low: 22,014.00
Close: 22,176.00
Settlement: 22,168.25
Range: 208.00 pts (832 ticks)
Volume: 756,513 (NQM5: 336,301 | NQU5: 420,107)
Open Interest Change:
NQM5: -36,527
NQU5: +115,125
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 22,200.00
Point of Control (POC): 22,175.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 22,150.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Monday’s session kicked off the week with a P-shaped profile, often associated with a short-covering rally. The shape matched the story well: Israel/Iran escalation over the weekend caught some participants leaning short, prompting a sharp squeeze on the open.
There was a strong drive up in the first 25 minutes, but after that, the session devolved into a choppy, low-structure grind in an ~80-point range between roughly 22,140 and 22,220. If you weren’t on the opening move, the rest of the day offered more frustration than opportunity.
Despite a clear upward rotation in Value Area and POC, the price action after the opening surge lacked structure. VWAP wasn’t respected, breakout attempts failed repeatedly, and market-generated levels didn’t provide reliable trades. Price tested both sides of the balance area but never followed through. This behavior is typical of rollover weeks, especially ahead of a key FOMC event.
From a liquidity perspective, notable observations:
A persistent bid wall at 21,120, visible from 9:45am through the close, was never tested.
A thick layer of sell liquidity sat at 22,225, thickening late afternoon, but also remained untouched.
Several sell-side icebergs were present during the early-morning consolidation phase, while large buy-side icebergs surfaced between 3:50pm–4:00pm into the close, suggesting absorption or positioning ahead of FOMC.
Structurally, this was a messy session, and traders leaning on traditional setups such as momentum and market structure likely found themselves chopped out.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 756,513 – the highest of the quarter, largely due to rollover activity and macro news.
Range: 208 pts — relatively contained considering the open drive.
Open Interest:
NQM5: -36,527 (large drop due to contract expiration this Friday)
NQU5: +115,125 (rollover officially underway)
Final Thoughts
The P-shape and early squeeze highlight the trapped shorts on the open, but the rest of the day was a warning to traders: chop season is here. With rollover in full swing and the FOMC rate decision tomorrow, the market has every reason to lack commitment in either direction short term.
This was not a session for technical purists — most signals failed and liquidity was dispersed, not concentrated. Yesterday was a textbook example of why many traders sit out rollover week.
If you're continuing to trade during rollover and FOMC week, expect similar behavior and be nimble. If your edge relies on structure and trend, this might be the time to scale back or sit out.
Today’s Analysis – Tuesday, 6/17/25
Market Context
Overnight inventory is short as of this writing, with NQ trading ~118 points below yesterday’s settlement of 22,168.25. While we are still technically within Monday’s range, we are trending toward the lower end, and a continued drift could open the day out of balance.
This morning brings Retail Sales at 8:30am and Industrial Production at 9:15am — both have the potential to introduce early volatility and shift directional bias. If you're trading the open, be flat before these releases. Even if the data is in line, the market could still move sharply in response given the current geopolitical backdrop and thin summer participation.
Looking ahead, FOMC is tomorrow, and expectations remain that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. However, the press conference and dot plot could inject volatility, especially if Powell pushes back on recent market optimism around rate cuts later this year. With FOMC on deck, today could be more about positioning than trend development.
In geopolitical headlines, Trump left the G7 summit early yesterday, cryptically citing an urgent need to return to Washington for something “big,” potentially tied to Middle East developments. Markets are likely to stay hypersensitive to any breaking news — especially headlines that could shift the tone on defense, energy, or trade.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Cautiously Neutral → Bearish
We are seeing signs of short-term buyer exhaustion after Monday’s early rally. Yesterday’s “P” profile reflected a short squeeze, not sustainable buying. Overnight weakness and potential out-of-balance open reinforce a more cautious tone into today.
Given we’re heading into a major Fed day, many participants may sit on their hands, creating whipsaw risk and poor follow-through. If price opens out of balance to the downside, I’ll be looking for potential failed auctions and responsive buying. If we remain within range, I expect rotation around value and sloppy structure. Be patient and aware — today could fake moves in both directions as traders jockey ahead of the Fed.
Also: don’t forget about the clock. With Retail Sales and Industrial Production hitting before the open, and headline risk lingering from G7 developments, staying flat into these windows is prudent. Have alerts set.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
22,225.00 – Sell liquidity cap from Monday’s session
22,222.00 – Yesterday’s high
22,176.00 – Monday’s close
22,120.00 – Major buy-side liquidity magnet
21,980.00 – Monday’s POC
Downside:
21,870.00 – Monday’s VAL
21,840.00 → 21,800.00 – Light structure and weak support
21,730.00 – Possible range extension target if we open below yesterday’s low
21,644.25 – Friday’s settlement (for broader context)
Final Note on Today
It’s a tricky environment: rollover continues, Fed looms, and headline risk is rising. Monday’s session gave us a sharp move and then nothing but noise — a structure often repeated during rollover weeks. Today might follow a similar path unless pre-market data or geopolitical news forces a repricing.
Respect the range, be quick to recognize failed breakouts, and above all — don’t get caught overtrading into FOMC. Let the market prove something before taking directional conviction. And keep one eye on the newsfeed — the Trump headline could become market-moving at any time.
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