Daily Brief - Tuesday, 4/8/25
Yesterday was like a bull and bear calling a truce in the middle of a bar fight — but memory is short, and volatility isn’t. Before you start buying the bounce, let’s talk.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Wednesday - 4/9/25
New US Tariffs go into effect.
2:00pm EST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - 4/10/25
China's retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods take effect.
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 223k)
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Friday - 4/11/25
Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, marking the start of the first-quarter earnings season.
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.3%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 54)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Monday, 4/7/25
Yesterday was one for the books.
We opened with a 500+ point gap down, ripped nearly 1,700 points from low to high, and still somehow finished the day… neutral.
Let’s break it down.
Session Stats
Session Open: 16,925.00
Session High: 18,361.50
Session VAH: 17,749.50
Session POC: 17,575.25
Session VAL: 17,250.50
Session Low: 16,673.50
Session Close: 17,560.75
Session Settlement: 17,563.25
Session Range: 1688 pts, 6752 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +5,144 (NQ)
Est Volume: 1,143,591
📊 Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
From a profile perspective, Monday was a Neutral Day: price stayed inside the Initial Balance (IB) and closed smack in the middle of the range — a sign that neither buyers nor sellers took control.
But let’s talk about that Initial Balance…
🔥 One of the Largest IBs in Years
We printed a 1,688-point IB, the biggest I’ve seen since the 2008 banking crisis. Seriously. That’s not hyperbole.
"A" Period: Sellers pushed hard off the open but were immediately rejected, leaving behind a single-print buying tail.
"B" Period: Buyers tried to close the gap, succeeded briefly, then were smacked down — leaving a single-print selling tail.
Once those tails were established, the range was locked in. From about 11:00am onward, the market chopped sideways, holding between roughly 17,200 and 17,800 into the close.
No closing push, no aggressive move from either side — just balance after chaos.
🕵️♂️ 5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
Looking closer at the price action:
The first two hours were absolute madness.
The green candle at 10:10am alone covered ~870 points. For scale, the gridlines on my chart are 100-point intervals — I had to zoom out just to fit that thing.
What caused it?
📣 Rumor hit the wire: Trump was allegedly considering a 90-day pause on tariffs (excluding China).
🏛️ White House officials denied it within the hour.
🇪🇺 Meanwhile, the EU floated a 0% tariff proposal — if the U.S. agreed to reciprocate.
Once the dust settled, we saw range-bound action between 17,800 resistance and 17,200 support — still a ~600-point zone, which offered intraday traders plenty of meat on the bone if they weren’t mentally exhausted from the first two hours of the session.
⚠️ A Quick Note on Volatility
Small accounts, take heed.
That 10:10am candle? If you were trading just one MNQ contract, it represented $1,740 of potential profit or loss — in five minutes.
I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again today:
Volatility is a double-edged sword.
If you’re undercapitalized or inexperienced, this is not the time to prove something.
Sit in cash. Protect your capital. Live to trade another day.
🔎 Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +5,144 contracts – new business still flowing in.
Volume: 1.1M contracts – slightly down from the previous session, but still very high.
Range: 1,688 points – I mean… come on. Holy shit.
💭 Final Thoughts
Monday’s session had it all — panic, rumors, relief, rejection, me drinking before noon. And then… a whole lot of nothing.
When markets behave like this, it's easy to get sucked into every move. But remember: big ranges and big candles are exciting — until they’re not.
Stay sharp. Stay humble. And remember: neutral days in volatile environments are often the market catching its breath.
🚦 Pre-Market Plan – Tuesday, April 8, 2025
As of this morning, overnight inventory is long, with NQ trading nearly +480 points above Monday’s settlement price. That puts us about 200 points below the top of yesterday’s session range, but price action has been steadily climbing in the overnight session.
There are no scheduled economic data releases before the open, so odds are we’ll open in-balance, but leaning toward the upper edge of Monday’s range.
🧠 Bias & Mindset
After Monday’s massive range and textbook Neutral Day, I’m approaching today with a neutral bias.
Yes, this bounce is significant — but so was the drop. After a move as sharp as last week’s, retracements like this are common. The real question is whether this will be remembered as the bottom… or just another dead cat bounce, like we saw in the March 12–25 stretch.
🗣️ Ignore the "this is the bottom" or "dead cat bounce" takes.
No one knows — not me, not you, not your favorite YouTuber.
This market is being driven by macro uncertainty and policy whiplash. The messaging out of Washington and abroad is inconsistent, and that means sentiment — not structure — is in charge. Until that changes, the market will continue to ebb and flow based on reaction, not reason.
In environments like this, patience > aggression.
Stay adaptive. Wait for confirmation. Be picky with your entries.
One impulsive trade in this kind of volatility can erase a week’s worth of profit in seconds. It could even blow your account.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
You don’t have to trade this.
Cash is a position. And sometimes, it's the best one.
When volatility’s high and headlines are everywhere, it’s easy to feel the urge to “do something.” But here’s a simple rule that’s always served me well:
The higher the VIX, the more experience it takes to trade effectively.
Yes — volatility brings opportunity. But it also brings risk, emotional reactivity, and account volatility. If you’re trading a small account or just not feeling dialed in, it’s perfectly okay to observe and wait.
🔍 What About Key Levels?
Today, I’m again intentionally not sharing key levels — and here’s why:
The VIX has cooled slightly, now flirting below 40, but we’re still in an emotionally-driven market. Structure matters less when headlines can swing price hundreds of points in minutes. Levels that normally offer clean reactions may simply not hold.
I’d rather share no levels than offer ones I don’t believe in.
This is a sentiment-driven market. Trade it like one.
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