Daily Brief - Tuesday, 4/29/25

Overnight drama from Amazon shakes the tape, but NQ still looks ready for a balanced open. Patience today — the real fireworks come later this week.

Apr 29, 2025

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Upcoming News

Tuesday - 4/29/25

10:00am EST - US JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 7.5M)
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 87.6)

Wednesday - 4/30/25

8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Advance (Expected: 0.4%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.2%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
10:00am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.6%)
4:05pm EST - Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings
4:40pm EST - Meta Q1 2025 Earnings

Thursday - 5/1/25

8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 224.5k)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected: 50.7)
10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 48)
4:00pm EST - Amazon Q1 2025 Earnings
4:30pm EST - Apple Q2 2025 Earnings

Friday - 5/2/25

8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.2%)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 130k)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 4.5%)

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Monday, 4/28/25

Session Stats

Open: 19,548.25
High: 19,623.00
Low: 19,257.25
Close: 19,524.50
Settlement: 19,528.00
Range: 365.75 pts, 1463 ticks
Volume (Est.): 515,090
Open Interest (Prelim): +2,300 (NQM5)

Value Area (Market Profile)

VAH: 19,537.25
POC: 19,481.00
VAL: 19,350.50

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Monday was a Normal Variation Day with downside range extension — but the extension didn’t stick.
Price rejected near 19,250, the same support area seen on Friday, and sharply reversed, recovering most of the morning’s losses into the afternoon.

Catalyst:
Around 1:30 PM EST, news broke that:

The White House was considering further pausing or reducing tariffs.
China reaffirmed its 5% growth target for 2025.

This boosted market sentiment and sparked the afternoon rally.

Context:

This marked the fifth straight session of upward POC and value area rotation in NQ — although the pace appears to be slowing.
Whether this slowing turns into consolidation or a topping process is something to monitor.

Participation note:
Despite fresh open interest flowing in each session, overall volume has declined over the past five days.
I wouldn't overreact to this yet, but it’s worth keeping on the radar.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

Key observations from the lower timeframe:

Volatile opening: The first 30–45 minutes featured choppy, whipsaw action. Standing aside during this noise would have been wise.
Resistance at 19,612:
The Weekly Kickoff High capped price right at the open — marking the session high. It was not revisited.
Morning pressure:
After the open, sellers controlled the morning auction until the tariff and China growth news hit around 1:30 PM.
Clean afternoon rally:
The afternoon trend was steady and directional, offering the best with-trend momentum trades of the day.
Some scalping setups appeared during the late morning, but the real opportunity was in the clean recovery during the afternoon into the close.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest (Prelim): +2,300 — still positive, but lighter than Friday’s +5,000 gain.
Volume: ~515,000 — continued decline, with Monday marking the second lowest volume day since March 25.
Range: 365 points — a modest but workable range.

Final Thoughts

Monday’s session confirmed that buyers are still willing to defend key levels, but participation is thinning slightly.
Heading into major midweek catalysts, patience and discipline will remain critical as the market reveals whether it's setting up for consolidation or another leg higher.

Pre-Market Plan – Tuesday, 4/29/25

Market Context

As of this writing, overnight inventory is heavily short, with price trading about 120–130 points below yesterday’s settlement.

Price was relatively flat until 8:30 AM EST, when the White House announced it viewed Amazon’s newly released tariff cost report as a "hostile act" — adding fresh drama to trade headlines.
This news accelerated selling in NQ, deepening the overnight short inventory.

Despite the move, we still appear set to open in balance relative to Monday’s range.

For an out-of-balance, gap-down open, price would need to break below 19,233 — roughly another 200 points in a short window, which currently seems unlikely.

It will be important to watch the NY open closely to see if RTH (regular trading hours) participants react to the Amazon news or dismiss it.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral
I'm maintaining a neutral mindset to start each day.
This market remains headline-sensitive and unpredictable.
While recent price action has been strong, I’m not fully buying into the rally yet.
- Fundamentals — particularly the lack of a finalized tariff deal — don't fully support it.
- It seems more driven by sentiment relief that Trump may not be as hardline on tariffs as initially feared.
- His willingness to ease off under market pressure has calmed some nerves, at least temporarily.
Wildcard:
We’re likely one full earnings cycle away from seeing how tariffs will truly impact corporate profits. Until then, price action could remain detached from fundamentals.
The Big Tech earnings coming later this week will likely set the tone for indexes moving forward.
For today:
With an in-balance open expected, patience remains my priority. I plan to let good setups emerge naturally, especially as I feel fully back to strength after last week's illness.

Quick Note:

Yesterday, I unfortunately hit my Maximum Loss Limit (MLL) and blew the XFA after struggling through a tough session.

No excuses — I had a bad trading day.
After a smaller loss last Wednesday while sick (-$800), there was limited room before reaching MLL.
Yesterday’s trading crossed that line.

Focus today:
Reset mentally, stick to the plan, and trade with discipline.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside:

20,510.00 — Resistance from March 25th and 7th
20,000.00 — Major psychological level
19,612.00 — Weekly Kickoff High; was resistance yesterday and overnight. A break above would suggest bullish momentum for the day.

Downside:

19,350.00 — Yesterday’s Value Area Low; a break below could suggest sellers probing for lower value
19,230.00 — Support from Friday and prior resistance in mid-April; also the weak low area from Friday
19,000.00 — Psychological magnet
18,750.00 — April's recurring support zone

Final Note on Today

Today’s plan is all about patience, discipline, and clear decision-making.
The market remains vulnerable to sudden news-driven moves. I'll stay neutral, watch VWAP and key levels closely, and only engage when the opportunity is clear.

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