Daily Brief - Tuesday, 4/22/25

Overnight buyers are back, earnings season kicks off, and Tesla reports after the bell. We’re opening near the top of range—will bulls break out or get stuffed at resistance?

Apr 22, 2025

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Upcoming News

Tuesday - 4/22/25

4:10pm EST - Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings

Wednesday - 4/23/25

9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Composite PMI Flash (Expected: -)
9:45am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.681M)
2:00pm EST - Fed’s Beige Book
4:10pm EST - IBM Q1 2025 Earnings

Thursday - 4/25/25

8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: 1.5%)
8:30am EST - US Core Durable Goods (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Continued Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.87M)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.14M)
4:00pm EST - Alphabet Q1 2025 Earnings
4:00pm EST - Intel Q1 2025 Earnings

Friday - 4/26/25

10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 50.8)

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Monday, 4/21/25

Session Stats

Open: 18,129.25
High: 18,165.00
Low: 17,700.00
Close: 17,922.25
Settlement: 17922.25
Range: 465 pts, 1860 ticks
Volume (Est.): 485,431
Open Interest (Prelim): +5,475 (NQM25)

Value Area (Market Profile)

VAH: 17,900.25
POC: 17,775.25
VAL: 17,699.50

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Monday opened with a 200-point gap to the downside and shaped into a Normal Variation day—extending range lower early on, followed by a powerful rally into the close.

Up until 1:30 PM, it looked like we were heading for a full Trend Day down—liquidity was thin, and buyers couldn’t catch a bid. But around 17,700, a critical level formed. Sellers tested it twice over the course of two hours, and when they couldn’t break it, buyers seized control.

The result? A strong late-session auction lifted price back to the middle of the day’s range, signaling potential buyer strength at oversold levels. This could set the tone for today’s session.

Despite the bounce, it’s important to note that value and POC rotated lower again, continuing a pattern of acceptance at lower prices. We’ll be watching today to see if that trend continues—or if we finally see a turn in short-term sentiment.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

The open was messy and indecisive, derailing both my planned Opening Range Breakout and gap-fill failure setups.

There was a clean short setup when price broke and failed a retest of last week’s low (18,116). I hesitated—despite it being a setup I’ve taken a thousand times—and that hesitation cost me. It was a tough mental moment, but I refocused and moved on.

The next quality short appeared around 11:05 AM, after a nearly hour-long consolidation resolved lower. Another solid entry showed up around 12:45 PM with another long consolidation that required patience and breakout for another leg down.

From there, things went sideways—literally—until around 3:00 PM, when a surprise rally drove price sharply higher into the close. It was hard to trust that move given the day’s bearish tone, and while some saw it as an oversold bounce, others (like me) understandably hesitated. It’s always easier in hindsight.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest: +5,475 — unclear whether more shorts or longs, but my read leans toward new short positions.
Volume: ~485k — lowest daily volume since March 10. Big moves on light volume make me skeptical about conviction.
Range: 465 points — sizable, but not extreme. Volatile, but not chaotic.

Final Thoughts

The late-session rally was impressive, but volume was weak and participation uncertain. With value continuing to rotate down, the bigger picture still favors sellers—but we may be approaching a short-term inflection point.

Today’s session will be telling: does the bounce continue with follow-through, or do sellers press their advantage again?

Pre-Market Plan – Tuesday, 4/22/25

Market Context

As of this writing, overnight inventory is long, trading roughly 120 points above Monday’s settlement, putting us near the top of yesterday’s range and about 110 points below the prior day’s high. We're currently set to open in-balance but near the top of range, meaning a breakout above is possible if buyers step in.

At 3:00 AM, price tested above Monday’s high but was quickly rejected. Since then, last week’s low at 18,116 has acted as resistance multiple times during the overnight session.

Still, the overnight tone has been bullish ever since the 6:00 PM open—an extension of the late-session strength from Monday.

Today marks the beginning of key earnings releases, with Tesla reporting after the bell. As mentioned yesterday, I expect volatility to ramp up as the week progresses. According to several analysts and quants, this may be the most unpredictable earnings season since COVID-era Q2 2020.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral

Game Plan:
Given we’re opening in-balance, I plan to remain patient off the open and let the market show its hand. I’ll be watching closely for developing value on the Market Profile and how price reacts around key reference levels.

Critical levels early on include:

18,116 (last week’s low) — multiple rejections here overnight. If we break and hold above, that could suggest fair value is moving higher.
18,165 (yesterday’s high) — also the top of a single-print selling tail formed on Monday. A break above this level would be a strong bullish signal.

If sellers defend that single print zone (18,000–18,165), that would confirm continued resistance. But if price auctions cleanly above it, we may be looking at a shift in sentiment.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside:

19,612.00 – Weekly Kickoff High
19,256.00 – Last week’s high
19,000.00 – Psychological magnet
18,592.00 – Powell pivot — reclaiming this implies market is brushing off his hawkish tone
18,165.00 – Yesterday’s high and top of the single print zone — break above is bullish
18,116.00 – Last week’s low — reclaiming this would suggest buyers have the ball

Downside:

18,000.00 – Psychological level — a move below could signal this bounce is fizzling
17,700.00 – Strong buyer defense yesterday — key demand zone to watch
17,442.00 – Weekly Kickoff Low — a break below could bring heavy downside pressure

Final Note on Today

We’re in a pivotal spot on the chart. With earnings season heating up and the overnight tone leaning bullish, the next directional move could set the tone for the rest of the week. Be patient, watch for developing value, and don’t force trades in no-man’s-land.

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