Daily Brief - Tuesday, 4/15/25
The market’s tiptoeing into Tuesday—flat overnight, fading momentum, and structure pretending it matters. All quiet… for now. Keep your helmet nearby.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Wednesday - 4/16/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: 1.4%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: -0.2%)
1:30pm EST - Fed Chairman Powell Speaks
Thursday - 4/17/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.416M)
Friday - 4/18/25
Good Friday - Markets Closed
Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Monday, 4/14/25
Session Stats
Session Open: 19,232.00
Session High: 19,254.75
Session Low: 18,737.50
Session Close: 18,942.25
Settlement: 18,934.25
Value Area High (VAH): 19,100.25
Point of Control (POC): 18,973.50
Value Area Low (VAL): 18,851.50
Range: 517.25 pts, 2069 ticks
Estimated Volume: 571,036
Open Interest (Prelim): -11,983 (NQ)
Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Monday was a Normal Variation Day, featuring a range extension to the downside through the morning, followed by a "V"-shaped recovery in the afternoon — only to see a late-session selloff.
The result was a balanced “D”-shaped profile, with both the value area and POC sitting near the middle of the range, suggesting equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
Yesterday’s session opened with a large gap to the upside, but follow-through was absent. The market quickly faded off the open and closed the gap within the first two hours. However, once the gap was filled, there was no continuation to the downside.
When a gap closes and sellers fail to press further, it’s often a cue that the market may reverse back in the direction of the original gap — and that’s exactly what unfolded in the afternoon, with price rallying back higher.
This was the third consecutive session with upward rotation of value and POC, a bullish structural sign. However, the steep drop in open interest, combined with falling volume and range, hints that this recovery may be losing steam. It could mark a developing top — today’s price action will be crucial to confirm or reject that.
📌 Watch this level: A single-print selling tail formed early in the day from 19,280 to 19,240. If price auctions back into this zone in the coming sessions, it could act as a resistance shelf. On the other end, there was no strong buyer reaction at the day’s low — which increases the likelihood that 18,760 gets retested soon.
5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
On the lower timeframe, a few things stood out:
The high of day was set right off the open and never tested again — an early sign of seller control.
Buyers made a quick attempt to reclaim control, but sellers stepped in hard around 10:55 AM, driving a clean auction down.
This downtrend offered solid with-trend trade opportunities, tracking smoothly with the EMAs.
Price eventually bottomed right at the prior session's settlement, a level that was tested multiple times and held firmly.
🧠 On the footprint chart, the hold at settlement didn't look like strong buyer absorption — rather, sellers simply disappeared, which is an important nuance. This level will remain on my radar in upcoming sessions.
The afternoon bounce lacked strength and never came close to retesting the highs. Given the sharp drop in open interest, that recovery may have been driven more by short covering than fresh buying.
Overall, it was a day of lower highs, but also a well-defined support base, keeping price above the previous session’s settlement.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: -11,983 — The largest single-session drop (excluding roll dates) since Nov 15, 2024. This is a red flag for the continuation of the current rally.
Volume: 571k — Lowest volume since March 25 and the third straight day of decline.
Range: 517.25 points — Also the third consecutive day of range contraction, signaling decreasing volatility and possible stabilization.
Final Thoughts
Monday gave us a balanced, cautious session with signs of fatigue showing in the recent rally.
We're seeing value build higher, but without new buyers stepping in.
Volume, range, and open interest are all declining, hinting that this bounce may be running on fumes.
If price can’t hold above 18,934 in the coming sessions, we may see buyers lose control of the narrative.
Key levels like the selling tail at 19,280–19,240 and support near 18,760 will be crucial to monitor. Keep your eyes open for who shows up at those levels — that’s where the story continues.
Pre-Market Plan – Monday, April 14, 2025
At the time of this writing, overnight inventory is largely flat, with price sitting roughly 34 points below yesterday’s settlement. Action overnight has been sideways and low conviction, lacking direction or urgency.
We’re currently trading right in the middle of yesterday’s value area and range, setting us up for an in-balance open today.
Bias & Mindset
My bias today is neutral-to-bearish.
We’re seeing classic signs of a weakening move:
Open Interest is falling
Volume continues to shrink
Ranges are tightening
We’re at a crossroads: either buyers show up to fuel this rally, or sellers take control and resume the downtrend. Based on current market behavior, the risk skews to the downside.
My approach today will be to stay patient and wait for conviction. If price continues to chop around with no direction, I won’t force trades.
Unless a catalyst hits (a headline, tweet, or news flash), I wouldn’t be surprised to see another slow, low-volatility session.
What the Market’s Watching
Japan Tariff Negotiations
Japan is entering trade talks with the U.S., and markets are watching closely to see if Trump is actually willing to make deals with allies. The clock is ticking — 150 trade deals must be struck in under 90 days to avoid the sweeping tariffs announced for “Liberation Day.” That’s nearly 2 deals per day… and it’s a stretch.
Keep this storyline on your radar. It has the potential to jolt risk sentiment if negotiations break down or a surprise deal is announced.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
With volume dropping for three sessions, ranges narrowing, and the VIX down 20 points from last week, we’re finally seeing some structure and calm returning to the tape.
If this tone holds, I may even look to trade the combine today — but only if the market stays clean.
Upside Levels
19,387.00 – Last week’s high
19,375 – Resistance and former support (early April)
19,280 → 19,240 – Single-print selling tail from Monday. Watch for seller reaction if price revisits this zone.
19,255 – Yesterday’s high. A break and hold above this would suggest strong bullish intent.
19,000 – Psychological magnet and key overnight support
Downside Levels
18,837 – Yesterday’s low. A break below signals strong bearish pressure.
18,815 – Key support tested multiple times yesterday and overnight.
18,760 – Zone of failed downside auction yesterday. If retested, we’ll learn if any more business is left down here.
Keep in mind: Structure only matters until it doesn’t. If a fresh headline hits, price won’t care about levels.
Final Note on Today
Markets may be calm on the surface, but don’t mistake quiet for safety. We’re sitting on thinning participation, fading momentum, and a pile of unresolved headlines.
Stay nimble, stay skeptical, and let the market prove its next move.
Structure is only a guide — if a headline drops, expect price to cut through levels like they aren’t even there.
Patience is your edge today. Let the tape tell the story.
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