Daily Brief - Tuesday, 3/25/25
Yesterday's session saw the smallest daily range and volume in quite awhile. With the prediction of a low volatility week, will we see a continuation of this price action today?
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Tuesday - 3/25/25
10:00am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.68M)
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 93.55)
Wednesday - 3/26/25
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: -1%)
Thursday - 3/27/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Final (Expected: 2.3%)
Friday - 3/28/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 57.9)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Monday, 3/24/25
Session Open: 20,256.25
Session High: 20,409.50
Session VAH: 20,362.75
Session POC: 20,343.50
Session VAL: 20,287.25
Session Low: 20,229.25
Session Close: 20,365.75
Session Settlement: 20,374.25
Session Range: 180.25 pts, 721 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): -56,812 (NQH25), +2,692 (NQM25)
Est Volume: 555,563
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the upside. The NQM25 contract added +2,692 contracts, indicating some new business entering the market. However, NQH25 still had nearly 57,000 contracts left to expire, which were not yet rolled into NQM25. Volume was very low at just 555,000 contracts traded—the lowest since February 19th and nearly half the volume of March 17th.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s Brief, the market's attention is now turning to the April 2nd tariff deadline. One thing I’ve been watching closely is implied volatility (IV) in the options market. IV is low on contracts expiring before April 2nd and higher on those after, suggesting the market is expecting a quiet week until that event. Yesterday’s narrow 180-point range supports this outlook—slow, low-volatility price action may continue in the near term.
These small-range days can be very challenging to trade, especially for newer traders. If you don’t have experience navigating low-volatility environments, it’s often better to sit out and wait for cleaner setups. A good rule of thumb: the smaller the range, the smaller the opportunity—and often, the greater the chance of getting chopped up.
Yesterday’s session opened with a large gap above Friday’s range, creating a 255-point gap in structure from 20,230 down to 19,975. I’m watching this level closely—unfilled gaps tend to get tested, and I expect price to revisit that area at some point in the future.
Plan for Today - Tuesday, 3/25/25
As of this writing, overnight inventory is long, with price trading about +60 points above yesterday’s settlement.
Because yesterday’s settlement was near the top of the range, price has now moved above yesterday’s range, setting us up for an out-of-balance open with a gap to the upside.
Given this, I’ll be watching for an Opening Range Breakout trade off the open, and gap rules will be in play.
We also have two economic data releases at 10:00 AM: New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence. I plan to be flat heading into these, as such releases can cause unexpected volatility that can disrupt early trades.
Outside of an OR breakout, I plan to stay patient and wait for clean momentum setups. With yesterday’s low volatility and many analysts expecting it to continue this week, I’ll be extra cautious to avoid getting chopped up in tight, directionless price action. If the market doesn’t offer anything clear, I’m totally okay sitting on my hands today. No trade is always better than a bad trade.
Levels I’ll be watching for today:
20,715 – Prior resistance from March 6th.
20,450 – Key support/resistance zone tested on March 5th, 6th, and 7th.
20,410 – Yesterday’s high; price is slightly above this now. Could act as support on a pullback.
20,360 → 20,287 – Yesterday’s value area. Low volatility makes this a no-trade zone for me.
20,230 – Top of the unfilled gap below current structure. May act as support on a downside test; a break below could shift sentiment bearish.
20,115 – Prior resistance on March 10th, 17th, and 20th. Now that we’re above it, this level may flip to support.