Daily Brief - Tuesday, 3/11/25

A huge amount of new business came into NQ yesterday to fuel the continuing downtrend. Fear dominates with the dreaded recession word being heard more and more. Is the market overreacting?

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This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.

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Tuesday - 3/11/25

• 10:00am EST - US JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 7.635M)

Wednesday - 3/12/25

• 8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%)

• 8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)

• 8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3.2%)

• 8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)

Thursday - 3/13/25

• 8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.2%)

• 8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)

• 8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.5%)

• 8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)

Friday - 3/14/25

• 10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 63.5)

Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Monday, 3/10/25

Session Open: 19,881.00
Session High: 19,904.50
Session VAH: 19,650.00
Session POC: 19,555.50
Session VAL: 19,387.50
Session Low: 19,272.25
Session Close: 19,463.50
Session Settlement: 19,452.75
Session Range: 632.25 pts, 2529 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +29,092 (NQ), +16,522 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 798,511

Prior Session Analysis

• Yesterday’s session was a Normal Variation day with a large range extension to the downside. NQ has a huge amount of new business come in yesterday with the addition of +29,092 contracts. This was the largest amount of new business in a single day in NQ since mid-2024. This amount stands out in contrast with the normal <10k amounts we’ve been seeing each day since Feb 14th. Volume was substantial yesterday with 798k contracts traded.

  • Of the 29,092 new contracts yesterday, 24,793 were in the NQH25 (March) contract, 4,174 were added to the NQM25 (June), and a very small amount in Sep & Dec. No strong indications of rollover activity occurring yesterday.

  • ES also added a large amount of new business with +80,919 contracts.

• Trends need new business to keep their momentum. This very large amount of new business is what drove the -777 point move down yesterday.

• Yesterday was a momentum trader’s dream with sellers in control for almost the entire session and price following EMA’s and staying below VWAP.

• You’ll see that I had a Weekly Kickoff Low marked on my chart that I completely forgot to mention in yesterday’s post. Price rejected right off that level. Weekly kickoff highs and lows are important because larger institutions decide to adjust inventory at higher timeframes. These lows and highs are areas where it is believed that the larger other timeframe participants will become more active if price reaches them. We saw that happen very quickly yesterday and it put a complete stop to the downtrend for the day. I’ll make sure I call these out in my analysis going forward.

• Price is firmly below the 20,000 level now and 19,000 is in play.

• NQ is fully in correction territory which is 10% off of the all-time high close which was 22,407.75 set on 12/16/24. To enter bear market territory, which is 20% off of the all-time high close, NQ needs to close below 17,926.30. At this pace, it’s not out of the question we could reach it but we still have a ways to go.

Plan for Today - Tuesday, 3/11/25

• At the time of this writing, overnight inventory is slightly long, +25 points above yesterday’s settlement. Price did briefly dip below yesterday’s low early in the overnight session before auctioning up for the remainder of the session.

• This currently puts price set to open in-balance and in value from yesterday’s session. If we do open in value, I will be patient off the open and wait for better trade locations to present themselves as the session progresses.

• The JOLTS job report is set to release at 10:00am EST, I will be flat at least 5 minutes before this data is released.

• I will not be taking any trades today inside of yesterday’s value area, this puts us in the middle of the range. In my experience there is little to no edge in the middle of the range, and there are no cheap trades here.

• I will be looking longs above the prior session’s value area high, ideally above the prior session’s high. I will be looking for shorts below the prior sessions value area low, but ideally below the prior sessions low. The high and low from the prior session are better sentiment indicators for the day, so these are ideal to be patient and wait for price to auction above or below them. These areas also present the ability to put on cheap trades where you can find out quickly if you’re wrong and the trade isn’t going to work out.

• Levels I will be watching today:

  • 19,904 - area of yesterday’s session high, an auction above this would be a good sentiment indicator of a relief rally today.

  • 19,650 - area of yesterday’s session value high, and auction above this may indicate a test of the prior session’s high.

  • 19,450 - area of yesterday’s session value low, an auction below this may indicate a test of the prior session’s low.

  • 19,270 - area of the weekly kickoff low and yesterday’s session low, an auction below this would confirm bearish sentiment and I will be looking for short opportunities. This is a key level for me today.

  • 19,000 - another psychological level. It’s surprising how quickly we are moving between these key 1,000 point levels.