Daily Brief - Tuesday, 2/25/25
Yesterday, we saw another day of new business coming into NQ, even with the selling. NVDA earnings tomorrow after close. Are we building up for a big move in one direction?
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This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
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Tuesday - 2/25/25
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 102.8)
Wednesday - 2/26/25
10:00am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.675M)
4:05pm EST - NVDA Earnings
Thursday - 2/27/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 222k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate (Expected: 2.3%)
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: 2%)
Friday - 2/28/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Monday, 2/24/25
Session Open: 21,752.50
Session High: 21,801.75
Session VAH: 21,659.75
Session POC: 21,591.75
Session VAL: 21,509.25
Session Low: 21,407.50
Session Close: 21,421.00
Session Settlement: 21,420.25
Session Range: 394.25 pts, 1577 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +7,263 (NQ) / +4,164 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 661,755
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Normal day with a late spike to the downside that slightly extended the range late.
Sharp selloff off the open, for a few hours it appeared we may get another “V” shaped day as price rebounded off the 21,460 area. As price auctioned up, the prior session’s value area low provided strong resistance multiple times. This indicated that sentiment among participants was lower value for NQ in yesterday’s session than the prior one.
After multiple attempts to auction price higher, buyers capitulated and sellers took control around 2pm, price auctioned lower into the close with a late spike around 3:45pm to close lower than the prior support level around 21,460.
New business rebounded yesterday in NQ with the addition of +7,263 contracts on high volume with over 661k contracts traded.
This consistent new business at substantial volumes over 7 of the last 8 trading sessions is interesting. It’s hard to tell if it’s long or short. Even with this selloff over the last 2 sessions we are not seeing participants running for the exits. This leads me to believe that participants are adjusting and increasing inventory, when this happens over an extended period of time we usually see a strong drive in one direction at some point as the large participants consolidate before the move.
Some of this selling we are seeing could be hedging before NVDA earnings tomorrow after close.
Plan for Today - Tuesday, 2/25/25
At the time of this writing overnight inventory is mostly flat, just inside yesterday’s range towards the bottom. It is possible we could open slightly in-balance or out-of-balance to the downside by the time the market opens.
Plan for today is to be patient, wait for better trade locations as the session progresses and ideally, wait for a directional move in either direction with momentum.
There is a data report at 10am, US Consumer Confidence that could move the market. I plan to be flat going into this release.
Levels for today:
21,800 - clear area of resistance in yesterday’s overnight session and going back to sessions in mid-Feb.
21,660 - area of support in Friday’s selloff and area of strong resistance in yesterday’s session.
21,440 - area of support then resistance late in yesterday’s session and has acted as support in overnight trading.
21,290 - area of the overnight low
21,240 - area of resistance then support going back to early Feb.