Daily Brief - Tuesday, 2/18/25
Despite the fear and headwinds, NQ continues to see new business come in, fueling four consecutive positive days. We are now within striking distance of the all-time high. Will it take it out?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
TLDR:
NQ continues to rise with four straight positive days. Is now within striking distance of the all-time high of 22,450.
Over the last three trading sessions NQ has seen new business come in with +25k contracts added. This is a bullish indicator, and has been the fuel behind the strong move up.
It will be a light news week this week. Housing numbers Wednesday and Friday, FOMC meeting minutes Wednesday, Jobless claims Thursday, and PMI along with sentiment numbers on Friday.
It’s still a news-driven market; always pay attention to live news when trading, use stops, and don’t be greedy with profitable trades.
Upcoming News
Wednesday - 2/19/25
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.397M)
2:00pm EST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - 2/20/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 215k)
8:30am EST - US Continued Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.879M)
Friday - 2/21/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51.2)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 67.8)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.13M)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Friday, 2/14/25
Session Open: 22,108.00
Session High: 22,225.00
Session VAH: 22,178.75
Session POC: 22,158.00
Session VAL: 22,109.75
Session Low: 22,090.00
Session Close: 22,194.25
Session Settlement: 22.196.25
Session Range: 135 pts, 540 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +8,040 (NQ) / +2,139 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 430,284
Prior Session Analysis
Friday’s session was a Neutral day until 1pm EST, and then we saw an auction to the upside outside of the Initial Balance turning it into a Normal Variation day to the upside.
The range on Friday was VERY small, at only 135 points between the high and the low of the day. Trading opportunities were extremely limited, it was a good day to turn off the screen and go enjoy doing something else.
During this sideways action in a small range, NQ saw its 3rd straight day of significant new business with the additional of over +8k contracts. This followed the proceeding days of +11k contracts on Thursday, 2/13, and over +6k contracts on Wednesday, 2/12.
Friday’s session was the fourth straight positive session and has put NQ within striking distance of the all-time high of 22,450.
Plan for Today - Tuesday, 2/18/25
As of the time of this writing, overnight inventory is long +100 points from Friday’s close and +70 points above Friday’s range. With the absence of any news events this morning, it appears we will open out-of-balance to the upside.
Gap rules will be in place off the open along with an opening range breakout trade to the upside.
For levels to watch today:
22,320 - overnight high, a break above this could indicate further upside price action and a run at the all-time high of 22,450.
22,270 - this level has been resistance and support many times during the overnight session. I would look for a rejection off support here if price auctions lower, a break below could indicate a rejection of fair value today at higher prices.
22,225 - Friday’s session high. Look for support/rejection here. If a break below, indicates participants are seeing fair value today potentially inside Friday’s range.
Remember to keep an eye on news in real-time, this market can move in either direction off of any news reports. Always use stops, don’t get greedy with profit.