Daily Brief - Thursday, 7/3/25
Flat Overnight, Hefty News Dump, Low Volume —What Could Go Wrong?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Thursday - 7/3/25
8:30am EST - US Average Earnings YoY (Expected: 3.9%)
8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.3%)
8:30am EST - US Trade Balance (Expected: -69.8B)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 240k)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 110k)
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Final (Expected: 53.1)
9:45am EST - US S&P Composite PMI Final (Expected: —)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 7.8%)
10:00am EST - US ISM Services PMI (Expected: 50.8)
1:00pm EST - NQ market closes early
6:00pm EST - NQ market opens
Friday - 7/4/25
US Holiday - NQ market closes at 1pm EST, other markets closed.
Prior Session Analysis - Wednesday, 7/2/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,654.25
High: 22,854.00
Low: 22,651.25
Close: 22,844.50
Settlement: 22,843.00
Range: 202.75 points / 811 ticks
Volume: 409,290
Open Interest Change: +811 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 22,850.00
Point of Control (POC): 22,825.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 22,790.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Tuesday delivered a normal variation day with range extension to the upside, forming a textbook “P”-shaped profile. This wasn’t a short squeeze — it looked more like a clean rotation higher, as the market moved efficiently back to where it left off on Monday before Tuesday’s profit-taking.
Buyers were in control from the open, launching price directly upward with no attempt to test lower prices. The upward drive topped just above 22,800, where price then chopped sideways for the rest of the session. Notably, the area of congestion matched Monday’s highest-volume node, showing that the market is revisiting prior zones of interest and acting efficiently. You can see this in the pic below.
After the early drive, it was a snoozer. From 11:00am to the close, price chopped in a tight 40-point range between 22,810 and 22,850 with no momentum or initiative buying/selling into the close. Given the timing and structure, this felt like the market finishing up its rotation before heading into holiday mode.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 409,290 – down notably from Tuesday, indicating fading participation ahead of the July 4th holiday.
Open Interest: +811 contracts – a modest gain, well below the 3,122 contract loss on Tuesday, suggesting a lack of meaningful new positioning.
Price Range: 202.75 points / 811 ticks
Volume dipped and OI barely budged — the small increase doesn’t replace what was lost on Tuesday. This tells us that institutions may have finished their positioning earlier in the week and have now stepped away for the holiday.
Final Thoughts
Yesterday was a textbook example of market efficiency: Tuesday’s down rotation was met with a nearly full retracement on Wednesday, taking us right back to Monday’s key high-volume area. That said, the drop in volume and flat OI hint that institutions are likely done for the week.
If you weren’t active in the opening push yesterday, the rest of the day offered little edge. Choppy, low-tempo action dominated most of the session. With today and tomorrow being half-days, don’t be surprised if volume and tempo dry up even further.
Today’s Analysis – Thursday, 7/3/25
Market Context
Overnight inventory is nearly flat heading into the open, which is to be expected given yesterday’s half-hearted participation and the looming holiday. Markets are quiet, but the data calendar is anything but. Today is front-loaded with a firehose of economic releases that were shifted forward from Friday: the first wave hits at 8:30am, followed by additional drops at 9:45am and 10:00am.
Among this mountain of data, employment figures will be key. Earlier this week, the ADP report surprised to the downside, contradicting data released by the Trump administration. The market will be watching closely today for clues as to which narrative holds more weight. Expect movement if any of the major reports challenge consensus views.
On the structural front, yesterday's retracement put us right back near Monday’s highs, but there’s no clear signal that bulls or bears are ready to make the next move decisively — and today might not bring one either.
Today, NQ closes at 1pm EST. Don’t forget and get caught in a position.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
My bias is neutral heading into today. Price could drift in either direction or simply chop sideways. With institutions out, liquidity low, and algos driving the bus, there’s very little edge to be found. Half-days like this are notorious for aimless chop or erratic spikes on low volume.
I’ve learned through experience that it’s better to preserve mental capital than force trades in a half-day environment.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
23,000.00 – Psychological round number (watch for responsive selling or magnet effect)
22,934.75 — Monday’s (6/30) High
22,901.00 – Overnight high
22,854.00 — Yesterday’s High and area of VAH
Downside:
22,827.00 – Largest high-volume node (HVN) from Yesterday’s session, which also lined up with Monday’s HVN and is the area of the overnight low. This is a significant level, watch this area for support on any retracement.
22,790.00 – Yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL)
22,651.25 – Yesterday’s Low
Final Thoughts on Today
I won’t be trading today — and I highly recommend you don’t either. These low-liquidity, pre-holiday sessions are not worth the stress or the chop. Save your capital, your energy, and your sanity. Enjoy a break from the market, enjoy the fireworks, and come back refreshed and ready for Monday’s action — when things may finally get back to normal.
There will be no newsletter tomorrow, and I hope you’ll also take the day to unplug. Have a safe and fantastic 4th of July!
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