Daily Brief - Thursday, 4/17/25
OPEX is here, Powell’s shadow still looms, and traders are eyeing the exits ahead of a long weekend. It’s Thursday, but it feels like Friday—with a twist. Let’s get into it.
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This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Thursday - 4/17/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.416M)
Friday - 4/18/25
Good Friday - Markets Closed
Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Wednesday, 4/16/25
Session Stats
Session Open: 18,584.25
Session High: 18,735.00
Session Low: 18,116.25
Session Close: 18,386.75
Settlement: 18,385.25
Value Area High (VAH): 18,750.50
Point of Control (POC): 18,575.50
Value Area Low (VAL): 18,350.25
Range: 618.75 pts, 2475 ticks
Estimated Volume: 684,026
Open Interest (Prelim): +4,164 (NQM25)
Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Wednesday gave us a Normal Variation Day—but that label doesn’t do justice to the drama that unfolded. The session opened with a 300-point gap down, and the early action was textbook chop: buyers and sellers playing ping-pong around VWAP, with no clear conviction.
That all changed at 1:30pm ET.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell took the mic and reminded everyone who really drives this bus. His very hawkish comments that the Fed is not here to save the day sparked a sharp imbalance. The result? A downward auction of ~480 points that pushed the market well below perceived value.
But the story didn’t end there.
At 3:30pm, just as the NQ touched the 18,120 area, buyers showed up with purpose. The result was a 300-point rally into the close, reclaiming much of the day’s earlier losses. This late-session reversal was just as aggressive as the earlier selloff—clear evidence that participants saw the move as overextended and stepped in to buy the dip hard.
5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
Morning session: Tight, choppy, directionless. Price hugged VWAP for hours with little to no trend. Scalping was the only game in town.
Post-Powell (1:30pm): The floodgates opened. A high-volatility selloff created ideal setups for momentum traders.
Secondary entry: If you missed the initial drop, there was a cleaner, lower-risk setup just before 2:30pm, as price pulled back and consolidated before continuing down.
Reversal (3:30pm): The bounce from 18,120 was swift and violent. Traders who overstayed short positions got squeezed. Those who recognized the overextension were rewarded.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +4,164 — A notable jump in participation. This likely reflects new short positions being initiated during the selloff.
Volume: 684k — Volatility attracts activity. This was the highest volume in several sessions.
Range: 618.75 points — No surprise here. Big moves = big range.
Final Thoughts
This session was a reminder of how quickly the tone of the market can shift—especially when Powell steps up to the mic. Early indecision gave way to sharp directional movement, and traders who stayed nimble had multiple opportunities in both directions.
The key takeaway? In volatile environments, conviction matters—but so does timing. Don’t chase moves once they’re exhausted. Know your levels, trust your tools, and stay adaptable.
Pre-Market Plan – Thursday, April 17, 2025
Overnight Context
As of this morning, overnight inventory is long, with price trading roughly 100 points above yesterday’s settlement. We’re currently set to open in value and inside yesterday’s range, signaling a balanced market environment—at least for now.
Key Context: OPEX + Good Friday
It’s April OPEX (Options Expiration) today. A large chunk of put options are set to expire, and as those positions are closed or rolled, dealers will likely be buying to unwind short hedges, potentially adding support to the market.
Today is also the final trading session of the week, with markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday. With a three-day weekend ahead, don’t be surprised if some traders choose to flatten out positions into the close. If that happens, we could see a late-day rally, especially given the high level of short interest currently in the market.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral-Bullish
I’m expecting OPEX flows to provide buoyancy, but staying cautious—volatility can return fast if we get an unexpected headline or geopolitical twist.
Be patient. I’m not looking to force trades in the early chop. If we don’t get clear momentum setups, I’m completely fine sitting on the sidelines today.
Economic Data at 8:30am EST
Initial Jobless Claims
Housing Starts
These could introduce volatility before the open and reshape the structure heading into RTH.
What the Market’s Watching
1. Tariff Negotiations
Trump said there’s been “big progress” in negotiations with Japan. The Nikkei 225 reacted positively, but it’s unclear how—or if—the U.S. market will follow.
No updates yet on the EU negotiations. Worth keeping an ear out.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
19,387.00 – Last week’s high
19,375.00 – Resistance and key former support
19,280 → 19,240 – Single-print selling tail from Monday
19,000.00 – Psychological magnet + overnight resistance
18,735.00 – Yesterday’s high — reclaiming this would put us outside of yesterday’s range, signaling bullish strength
18,592.00 – Pivot from Powell’s speech yesterday — retaking this suggests the market has shrugged off his hawkish tone
Downside:
18,350.25 – Yesterday’s VAL — a break below implies a shift in perceived value
18,120.00 – Key demand area yesterday — watching for buyers to defend again
18,000.00 – Psychological line in the sand — a clean break signals real bearish intent.
Final Note on Today
Today could bring unexpected flows due to OPEX and holiday positioning. Be nimble. Know your levels. And remember:
Structure matters… until it doesn’t. A headline can wipe the board clean in seconds.
Stay sharp, stay safe. See you on the other side of the weekend.
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