Daily Brief - Thursday, 4/10/25
CPI came in soft, Trump’s still unpredictable, and the market’s caught somewhere between hope and whiplash. Today’s not about conviction—it’s about caution.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Thursday - 4/10/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 223k, Actual: 223k)
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%, Actual: 2.4%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.1%, Actual: -0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3%, Actual: 2.8%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%, Actual: 0.1%)
Friday - 4/11/25
Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, marking the start of the first-quarter earnings season.
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.3%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 54)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Wednesday, 4/9/25
Well… that escalated quickly.
What started as a balanced, choppy session turned into a historic rip higher, thanks to a midday shock announcement from Trump. The result? One of the largest one-day gains in NQ since 2008 — and maybe the cleanest short squeeze you’ll ever see.
Session Stats
Session Open: 17,208.50
Session High: 19,386.75
Session Low: 17,202.25
Session Close: 19,269.50
Settlement: 19,288.75
Value Area High (VAH): 18,749.50
Point of Control (POC): 17,423.25
Value Area Low (VAL): 17,199.25
Range: 2,184 points / 8,738 ticks
Estimated Volume: 1,090,825 contracts
Open Interest (Prelim): -9,797 contracts
📊 Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Honestly, it’s hard to label this session. The profile was “D”-shaped for most of the day, with price rotating around the POC from the open until just after 1:00pm ET. Then things got wild.
At 1:15pm, Trump announced a 90-day pause on all tariffs (excluding China) — and shorts rushed for the exits. What followed was a massive short squeeze, triggering one of the largest 30-minute candles we’ve seen in years.
The 1:15pm candle alone rallied nearly 1,200 points at one point, before closing up around 800.
By the close, the NQ had gained 2,054 points — an 11.9% gain, the largest single-day rally since the 2008 crisis.
For reference, only January 3, 2001 (~14% gain) ranks higher.
Open interest fell by nearly 9,800 contracts — not huge given the size of the move, but possibly masked by new longs entering while shorts exited. That could explain the added momentum.
🕵️♂️ 5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
The 5-minute chart confirms what the profile shows:
Choppy and indecisive early session, no clean momentum or direction until the Trump news hit.
After 1:15pm, the market launched — buyers took full control, and it never looked back into the close.
Notably, we saw no real profit-taking late in the session — a bullish signal suggesting participants are expecting continuation.
🔎 Volume & Participation
Open Interest: -9,797 — reflects the short squeeze, but suggests there are still plenty of shorts left in the system.
Volume: Over 1 million contracts — higher than Tuesday, lower than Monday.
Range: 2,184 points — an absolutely massive day. You can trade for decades and not see a range like that.
💭 Final Thoughts
This session was a reminder of just how fast sentiment can flip in a headline-driven market. If a trader was short with no stop when that announcement came out, their account is likely gone.
The early day structure gave no hint of what was coming — and the response to Trump’s announcement shows how fragile positioning had become. The lack of closing weakness adds fuel to a possible follow-through move today.
If you caught the squeeze — well done. If you missed it? Don’t chase. There will be more opportunities. Just don’t fight momentum when it’s this powerful.
🚦 Pre-Market Plan – Thursday, April 10, 2025
As of this writing, overnight inventory is short, with NQ trading roughly 500 points below Wednesday’s settlement.
CPI data dropped at 8:30am ET, and across the board, inflation came in lower than expected — in some cases, much lower. You’d expect a euphoric reaction, but so far, the market response has been muted to bearish. We’ll see if that sentiment sticks as the NY session opens.
Current price action sits well within yesterday’s massive range, which means we’re likely to open in-balance.
🧠 Bias & Mindset
Today, I’m coming in neutral and cautious.
Yes, the 90-day tariff pause from Trump gave markets a boost — but there’s plenty of skepticism surrounding both the policy and its shelf life. Many participants simply don’t trust that this pause will hold, and history backs up that caution.
My plan today is simple: wait, observe, and stay out of chop.
If the market gives a clean momentum move, I’ll participate. But I won’t force trades in indecision or volatility with no direction. I’m not trading levels today, and likely won’t for a while. This market is being driven by sentiment, news, and uncertainty — not structure.
Keep one eye on the charts and the other on the headlines.
Trump has a history of changing his stance quickly, and there’s a real chance this 90-day pause won’t make it to day 90. The market’s hope right now is that this window gives room for countries to negotiate and avoid full-scale tariffs altogether. But hope alone won’t hold price.
🌍 What the Market’s Watching
Tariff Talks with China: Traders are watching for any progress — or escalation — in negotiations. A pivot or hardline stance from either side could shift sentiment fast.
Bond Yields: Between Monday and Wednesday, the 10-year yield jumped 60 basis points. That’s not what the administration wants — and it’s likely what forced the pause. If yields stay high or push higher, that could weigh heavily on equities.
📝 A Note on My Trading Results
You may have noticed I haven’t been posting my trading results this week. Here’s why:
I haven’t been trading the combine account.
Instead, I’ve been trading larger accounts that I can’t publicly share here (see the About page for more on that). The combine account only allows for a $2,000 drawdown, and in a market with this level of volatility, that’s simply not enough to trade responsibly.
When you’re seeing 500+ point moves in minutes and pullbacks of 100–200 points, it’s not realistic to use tight stops and stay within such a narrow risk window. You either end up trading scared or getting chopped up.
So until things calm down, I’ll be sitting out of that account.
I’ll resume posting results once the volatility comes back to earth.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
You don’t have to trade this market.
Cash is a position. And sometimes, it's the best one.
When volatility’s high and headlines are everywhere, it’s easy to feel the urge to “do something.” But here’s a simple rule that’s always served me well:
The higher the VIX, the more experience it takes to trade effectively.
Yes — volatility brings opportunity. But it also brings risk, emotional reactivity, and account volatility. If you’re trading a small account or just not feeling dialed in, it’s perfectly okay to observe and wait.
🔍 What About Key Levels?
Today, I’m again intentionally not sharing key levels — and here’s why:
The VIX has cooled slightly, now below 40, but we’re still in an emotionally-driven market. Structure matters less when headlines can swing price hundreds of points in minutes. Levels that normally offer clean reactions may simply not hold.
I’d rather share no levels than offer ones I don’t believe in.
This is a sentiment-driven market. Trade it like one.
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