Daily Brief - Thursday, 3/27/25
Volatility returned to the market yesterday and with it better trading opportunities than the prior two sessions. Hoping for more of that today as the market waits for PCE data tomorrow.
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This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
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Thursday - 3/27/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Final (Expected: 2.3%)
Friday - 3/28/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 57.9)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Wednesday, 3/26/25
Session Open: 20,439.00
Session High: 20,475.00
Session VAH: 20,272.00
Session POC: 20,120.50
Session VAL: 20,047.50
Session Low: 20,045.00
Session Close: 20,112.50
Session Settlement: 20,116.50
Session Range: 430 pts, 1720 ticks
OI Change (Prelim):
Est Volume: 621,604
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session played out as what’s called a Double Distribution Day. In simpler terms, the market had two distinct phases: an early sharp move lower, followed by a pause, and then another strong move down. Here’s how it unfolded:
Right after the open, price dropped quickly.
It briefly bounced off the top of a previously unfilled gap (marked in purple) but couldn’t push higher.
For about 90 minutes, price moved sideways in a consolidation.
Then came another strong move lower, which lasted for a couple of hours before the market settled into a range into the close.
Unlike the previous two slow sessions, yesterday brought more activity. Nasdaq futures (NQ) added nearly 5,000 new contracts, which is a sign that fresh money came into the market. Volume also jumped, with over 621,000 contracts traded—much higher than earlier in the week. This added volume helped create a more “tradable” environment with better liquidity and follow-through on setups.
If you missed the first move off the open—like I did—there were still solid opportunities to trade with the trend once price broke down from the consolidation zone above the gap. That trend lasted around two hours, which is a relatively long directional move for NQ. Hopefully, you were able to catch a piece of it.
As for that previous gap (from 20,230 to 19,975)—now that price has traded into it, I no longer consider it relevant. If you had it marked on your charts, feel free to remove it.
Looking ahead, keep in mind that PCE inflation data is coming out Friday. It’s possible that yesterday’s pickup in volatility was due to larger players starting to position ahead of that report. We might see more of that kind of movement today. Sometimes, key data gets quietly anticipated or “whispered” among big institutions before it's released. That’s just speculation—but when the market suddenly wakes up after a couple of sleepy sessions, there’s usually a reason behind it.
Plan for Today - Thursday, 3/27/25
As of now, overnight trading has been short—meaning price is about 50 points below where the market settled yesterday. That puts us near the bottom of yesterday’s range, and there’s a chance we continue lower before the U.S. session opens at 9:30 a.m. ET. If that happens, we’d be opening out-of-balance, which simply means price is moving outside of where it spent most of the previous session.
Even though we’re still technically within yesterday’s range for now, we have some key economic data hitting at 8:30 a.m.—Initial Jobless Claims and the final estimate for GDP. These reports can spark volatility and move the market in either direction before the open.
If we open out-of-balance with a gap down, I’ll be looking for two of my usual setups:
Opening range breakout – when price breaks above or below the early morning range.
Gap trade – if price starts to fill the gap back toward yesterday’s close.
If we open in-balance (inside yesterday’s range), or the gap trade setups don’t look clean, I’ll stay patient and focus on trading with the trend during the session—only entering when momentum is clearly building.
Key Levels I’m Watching
20,475 – Yesterday’s high. A break above this would be a strong bullish signal.
20,225 – This level acted as support earlier in yesterday’s session, then turned into resistance later. It could matter again today.
20,165 – Last week’s low. It helped support price after yesterday’s initial drop and might act as resistance now.
20,145 – Resistance zone during both yesterday’s and today’s overnight session.
20,045 – Yesterday’s low and also the low of the value area (where most trading occurred). A move below this would suggest increased bearish sentiment.
20,000 – A key psychological level. It also held as support overnight.
19,815 – A previous support zone from last Thursday and Friday.