Daily Brief - Thursday, 2/20/25
NQ has been largely sideways for the last 3 sessions while substantial new business has been flowing in. Is NQ coiling up for a big move?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
TLDR:
We saw a “V” shaped start to the session in NQ yesterday which is a common pattern but not one that has been seen in awhile.
NQ again added a substantial amount of new business yesterday with +9,550 contracts putting it’s five day total at around +40k contracts added.
Overnight inventory is a little short, but price action has been mostly flat throughout. It appears we will open in-balance from yesterday.
The market has not reacted to the jobless claim data released this morning.
Upcoming News
Thursday - 2/20/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 215k, Actual: 219k)
8:30am EST - US Cont’d Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.879M, Actual: 1.869M)
Friday - 2/21/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51.2)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 67.8)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.13M)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Wednesday, 2/19/25
Session Open: 22,207.25
Session High: 22,299.75
Session VAH: 22,260.00
Session POC: 22,222.75
Session VAL: 22,185.00
Session Low: 22,118.00
Session Close: 22,247.00
Session Settlement: 22,250.50
Session Range: 181.75 pts, 727 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +9,550 (NQ)
Est Volume: 492,192
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Normal Variation day with range extension to the upside.
If you’ve been trading NQ for some time, you’ll recognize the “V” pattern to the day. Sometimes, NQ tends to head in one direction off the open, set an extreme in one direction, and then reverse course in the other direction and not come near that extreme again for the rest of the session.
The auction down off the open established a single-print buying tail below 22,140, which I would mark as an area of potential support in coming sessions.
Tuesday’s session value area high acted as solid support during the session once price broke above it.
Price did briefly auction higher than Tuesday’s session but failed above; participants rejected higher prices and auctioned price back into Tuesday’s session range.
NQ saw another day of substantial new business with the addition of +9,550 contracts. That puts NQ at approximately +40k contracts added over the last five sessions.
Plan for Today - Thursday, 2/20/25
At the time of this writing overnight inventory is a little short, 50+ points below yesterday’s close. Price action has been mostly flat throughout.
Initial Jobless claims came in higher than expected this morning, Continued claims came in lower than expected. Not seeing a strong reaction to either from the market at this time.
Price is within value and range from yesterday’s session, it appears we will open in-balance.
Levels I will be watching today:
22,290 - area of resistance from yesterday’s session, a break and acceptance above this could indicate a drive to test the all-time high at 22,450.
22,250 - acted as support and resistance in yesterday’s session.
22,185 - yesterday’s value area low and an area of support and resistance going back multiple sessions.
22,140 to 22,100 - this is an area with the single-print buying tail from yesterday and was also an area of strong rejection from support in the prior session on Tuesday. Buyers have stepped in strongly down in this area to reject lower prices.