Daily Brief - Monday, 8/10/25
All-Time Highs on a Friday Close? NQ Continues its March Upward.
Disclaimer
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News Docket
Tuesday - 8/12/25
US-China Tariff Deadline
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.8%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Thursday - 8/14/25
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
Friday - 8/15/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: 0.5%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: 0%)
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 62)
Prior Session Analysis - Friday, 8/8/25
Session Stats
Open: 23,541.75
High: 23,765.00
Low: 23,530.00
Close: 23,714.50
Settlement: 23,713.75
Range: 235.00 points / 940 ticks
Volume: 454,964
Open Interest Change: +9,646 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 23,720.00
Point of Control (POC): 23,685.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 23,640.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Finally! That accumulation I spotted during Thursday's selloff led me to have a bullish bias going into Friday, and for once I was actually right (it doesn't happen very often, so I'm going to savor this moment). Buyers were in complete control from the opening bell, immediately auctioning price above Thursday's high and never really looking back.
If you look at the higher timeframe 30-minute chart, Friday's regular trading session looks like it continued right from Thursday's session—like the overnight session didn't even occur. That's exactly the kind of seamless continuation you want to see when institutional accumulation is happening underneath the surface noise.
The session wasn't without its drama, though. Once price moved above Thursday's high, sellers did manage to take control briefly and auction price back down below VWAP. This fakeout around 23,620 probably had some traders thinking we were coming back down, but buyers stepped right back in with conviction and drove price back above VWAP to that 23,695 resistance area that appeared prior.
That 23,695 level held as resistance until around 2:00 PM, when buyers finally managed to push through. Then, just to keep everyone on their toes, we got another fakeout going into the close. Sellers drove price down quickly to the 23,680 mark, and for a moment I thought we were seeing the typical Friday selloff into the weekend.
Nope. Buyers had other plans. They stepped back in and created a late-day spike to the upside that broke the all-time high and set a new record at 23,765.00 right at the close. Talk about going into the weekend on a strong note.
The value area rotated higher, settling between 23,640 and 23,720 with the POC at 23,685. This upward migration confirms that the market continues to accept higher fair value and is building legitimate institutional interest at these record levels.
The tight value area range relative to the session's overall range suggests that once the initial breakout occurred, there was good agreement about fair value in this elevated zone. The POC positioning in the middle of the value area indicates balanced conditions once price established itself at these new highs.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 454,964 – lowest since July 28th, which is actually encouraging for a breakout day
Open Interest: +9,646 contracts (NQU5) – significant increase in new business, confirming institutional participation
Price Range: 235.00 points / 940 ticks – the chart can deceive one to think this range was larger Friday than it actually was. This is a typical NQ range.
The combination of lower volume with substantial open interest increase is textbook institutional accumulation. When you see nearly 10,000 contracts of new business added on relatively low volume, it tells you that the smart money is positioning for sustained higher prices rather than just trading the momentum.
Final Thoughts
Friday was validation that sometimes patience and technical analysis actually pay off. The accumulation signals from Thursday's CVD divergence translated into genuine follow-through, and the market rewarded those who were paying attention to the underlying flow rather than just the surface price action.
The fact that we set new all-time highs on a Friday close is particularly significant—it shows real conviction rather than just momentum trading. Going into the weekend with fresh highs and strong institutional positioning sets up an interesting dynamic for the week ahead.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 8/10/25
Market Context
The weekend celebration appears to be continuing into Monday morning, with the NQ trading at 23,732, about 18 points above Friday's settlement. The overnight range between 23,773 and 23,667.75 has been relatively well-contained given that we're trading at record levels, and we're opening in balance after Friday's historic close.
We're still operating in a low volatility, positive gamma environment where dealer behavior continues to support any meaningful dips. The VIX is up 4.5% this morning to 15.83 as I write this, which is healthy—it likely reflects some natural caution around the Trump-Putin meeting, US/China tariff deadline, and CPI data coming this week.
This week is relatively light on the data release front, with CPI tomorrow being the biggest event. If we can navigate that without any negative surprises, and no other macro catalysts emerge, I think this low volatility environment could continue until perhaps the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of next week.
Bias & Mindset
Longer Term Bias: Bullish
Today’s Bias: Neutral
I'm staying neutral with low confidence because honestly, we just saw a very strong move to new all-time highs on Friday. The big question now is whether the market pauses or pulls back to digest that move or if we see another push higher. At these levels, both scenarios are equally plausible.
The overnight action has been constructive—no panic selling, no euphoric buying, just calm consolidation around the new highs. That's actually encouraging because it somewhat confirms the breakout wasn't just momentum-driven but had some institutional legs behind it.
The key will be watching how the market handles this first test of the new record territory during regular trading hours. Sometimes after big Friday closes like that, you get follow-through on Monday. Other times, you don’t. We will have to wait and see.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
23,773 — Overnight high, immediate resistance level
23,765 — Friday's high and current all-time high
23,720 — Friday's VAH, support for continued strength
Downside:
23,667.75 — Overnight low, first meaningful support
23,640 — Friday's VAL, more substantial support level
23,530 — Friday's low, major support if we see any real weakness
Final Thoughts on Today
The biggest risk in this low volatility environment is that it can become so suppressed that it spikes up very quickly when conditions change. When that happens, it can suddenly shift dealer behavior from buying dips to selling rallies and catch participants off guard before they realize the regime has shifted.
Checking on the VIX this morning it is up 4.5% to 15.83 which is healthy and likely reflects natural caution around this week's events rather than any fundamental shift. At this point, it doesn't change the current positive gamma regime we're in, but it's a good reminder to always monitor these conditions.
The technical picture is about as clean as it gets—new all-time highs, institutional accumulation, positive gamma support, and low volatility. The challenge is that when everything looks this good, it's often when unexpected things happen. Stay alert, but don't overthink it. Sometimes the market just wants to go higher, and fighting that inclination because you think it "should" pull back can be expensive.
We're in uncharted territory now, which means traditional resistance levels are mostly meaningless. The market will create its own levels as it goes, and our job is to follow along rather than predict where it should stop.
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