Daily Brief - Monday, 7/7/25
Volatility on Standby: Thin Data Week, Thick Headline Risk
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
It’s a very light week in regard to data releases. The most significant market movers will be the Reciprocal Tariffs deadline and the FOMC Meeting minutes on Wednesday. I expect a very busy news cycle leading up the the tariff deadline. Based on the news, volatility may increase as early as today.
Wednesday - 7/9/25
12:00 am EST - US Reciprocal Tariffs Deadline
2:00 pm EST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - 7/10/25
8:30 am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 240.5k)
8:30am EST - US Continued Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.962M)
Prior Session Analysis - Thursday, 7/3/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,932.00
High: 23,102.50
Low: 22,930.25
Close: 23,056.75
Settlement: 23,062.50
Range: 172.25 points / 689 ticks
Volume: 269,698
Open Interest Change: +7,299 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 23,100.00
Point of Control (POC): 23,065.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 23,030.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Thursday’s holiday-shortened session brought bullish follow-through from earlier in the week. NQ opened with an upside gap of ~80 points and showed little interest in closing it. Buyers stepped in immediately and drove price higher through the open. After peaking at 23,102.50 around mid-morning, the session transitioned into a classic consolidation phase with price holding within a tight range between 23,040 and 23,100.
This pattern—impulsive move followed by sideways chop—is one we’ve seen repeatedly in recent weeks. Importantly, price accepted above 23,000 for the entirety of the session, a significant psychological milestone. The upward trend remains intact, with the session closing just below the high at 23,056.75. There was no test of lower prices; the low of the day was just 1.75 points below the open.
Structurally, it was a normal variation day with range extension to the upside and a textbook “P” shaped profile. While the session ended early at 1:15pm ET due to the holiday, it was still an efficient move higher with value and POC rotating upward, continuing the trend from earlier in the week.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 269,698 – expectedly light due to the half-day session, but not the lowest of the month.
Open Interest: +7,299 contracts (NQU5) – a surprisingly strong gain in OI, signaling new long positions being established.
Range: 172.25 points / 689 ticks – a strong directional move for a shortened session.
The standout here is the open interest. Despite light volume, the solid increase in OI shows clear initiative by buyers to position into the holiday weekend. That kind of confidence, in a session devoid of institutional participation due to the shortened hours, is notable.
Final Thoughts
Even on a holiday-shortened day, the bulls remained firmly in control. The consistent acceptance above 23,000, the upward rotation in value, and the strong close all support the ongoing bullish narrative. While participation was low, the open interest gain tells us traders weren’t just watching—they were positioning.
Looking ahead, the market is extended on the higher timeframe, but there are few signs of weakness. As we return from the long weekend, the big question becomes whether buyers still have fuel or if we enter a consolidation phase. Either way, 23,000 now serves as the new battleground.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 7/7/25
Market Context
After Thursday’s strong, directional half-day session, we return from the holiday weekend with a modest pullback in the overnight session. Overnight inventory is short, currently trading ~85 points below Thursday’s settlement and back within Thursday’s range, setting us up for an in-balance open.
We’re heading into a light economic calendar week, with no notable data releases today. However, that calm may be misleading. The market’s attention will be squarely focused on two key macro events: the release of FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday at 2:00pm and the looming self-imposed tariff deadline at midnight Tuesday. The general expectation is that Trump will once again deploy his usual "TACO" strategy — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — possibly extending the deadline on tariffs, (what’s the point of a deadline if you keep extending it?), either broadly or for select trade partners. But with trade rhetoric, timing and tone can move markets fast. Expect headlines to dominate the tempo of the session and keep risk tightly managed.
Technically, Friday’s close above 23,000 was a statement. Today, I’ll be watching closely to see if buyers defend that psychological level early. If they can reclaim and hold above 23,000, it supports the idea of continued acceptance at these highs. On the downside, there’s a small but notable gap left from Thursday morning between 22,932 and 22,854. If sellers step in with momentum, that becomes the likely target for a backfill.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
I’m entering the session with a neutral bias, open to either a continuation higher if buyers hold above 23,000 or a downside move to fill Thursday’s opening gap. My mindset is flexible but patient—today may bring strong early participation as institutions re-engage post-holiday, and I want to see that intent clearly before committing to any direction. I will be cautious about headline risk and nimble in my positioning. If there’s no clear conviction, I’m comfortable sitting on hands and waiting for more data or cleaner setups.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
23,102.50 — Thursday’s High, a break above would be bullish
23,030.00 — Thursday’s VAL & Overnight High
23,000.00 – Watch for a buyers to attempt to reclaim this level.
Downside:
22,930.25 — Thursday’s low, a break below could be a signal of a potential gap fill.
22,854.00 — Wednesday’s high, price could fill the gap anywhere between here and 22,930.25.
Final Thoughts on Today
We’re back to full hours and full participation today. Volume should return, and after last week’s strong open interest gain into the holiday, I’m especially interested to see how institutions show up today. Watch the open closely: if we see initiative off the bell, that could tell us all we need to know about the tone for the session. Just don’t forget the context—headlines can swing sentiment fast this week, especially with tariffs announcements lurking. Risk accordingly, and stay adaptable.
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