Daily Brief - Monday, 6/9/25
From Breakout to Balance: NQ Eyes 22K but Awaits Headlines to Lead the Way
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Catch me on Twitter @TheShmuts during the day covering the session as it develops.
News Docket
Monday - 6/9/25
Time Unknown - US/China Trade Meeting (Tentative)
Wednesday - 6/11/25
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Thursday - 6/12/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 240.5)
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Friday - 6/13/25
10:00am EST - Univ Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 53.5)
Prior Session Analysis - Friday, 6/6/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,797.75
High: 21,873.50
Low: 21,722.00
Close: 21,789.50
Settlement: 21,789.50
Range: 151.5 pts (606 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 469,818 (below weekly average)
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +4,557
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,855.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,815.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,785.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Friday’s session was a Normal Variation Day with a small range extension to the downside that failed to hold. The session opened slightly above value, filled the overnight gap quickly, and then settled into a relatively balanced auction. There was no real directional follow-through despite an early test above 21,870, and the market eventually faded into the close.
The market struggled to hold above the early session high, and once again, price found responsive selling near 21,855—the top of the value area. Notably, while the range was modest, the POC remained centered, and value built tightly, indicating equilibrium among buyers and sellers.
Structurally, this session fits the profile of a market pausing at potential inflection. It followed an Outside Day on Thursday with a session of consolidation and lack of conviction. The POC and VAH/VAL compression suggests the market is “coiling,” often a precursor to directional expansion.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +4,557 – An increase in positioning. With muted price movement, this may point to quiet accumulation or hedging into next week.
Volume: ~469,818 – Light for an RTH session, especially for a Friday. This reflects low urgency and a wait-and-see mindset.
Range: 151.5 points – Compressed compared to earlier in the week.
Final Thoughts
The bounce from earlier in the week now appears to be stalling below 21,875 resistance. Despite Friday’s session showing a gain in open interest, the light volume and tight value area tell us traders are hesitant to commit without fresh catalysts.
Heading into this week, I expect 21,855 will continue to act as a key resistance level. Holding above it with acceptance would be bullish. On the downside, 21,722 (Friday’s low) and 21,650 (prior value zone) are initial supports.
This market is in balance—building energy. Be ready for expansion soon.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 6/9/25
Market Context
At the time of writing, overnight inventory is essentially flat—just 7 points above Friday’s settlement—and remains well within Friday’s value area and total range. This sets us up for an in-balance open, barring any pre-market surprises.
A few catalysts to keep on your radar today:
US–China trade talks: Delegations are meeting in London to continue negotiations, particularly around rare earth minerals. Any developments here could quickly shift sentiment in NQ. Watch for headlines.
Apple’s WWDC: The keynote kicks off at 1pm EST. Expectations around AI announcements are low, but a surprise could move the index—Apple remains the biggest drag on the Nasdaq YTD, down 19%.
Tariffs: As usual, headline risk around tariffs remains ever-present. We're now in a market that reacts first and asks questions later.
Looking ahead to this week, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday could reset the tone. Last Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report has temporarily cooled the recession chatter, but CPI will carry more weight in shaping market direction.
Structurally, NQ has broken above the 21,558 level that had served as resistance and successfully retested it on Thursday. This gives some confidence in the uptrend’s durability—for now. The next critical test is 21,935, with a clear break and hold above 22,000 opening the door for a retest of all-time highs. ES already closed above the 6,000 milestone Friday, which could lead the way if that level holds.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
The last few sessions have been choppy and rangebound with the exception of Thursday’s headline driven sell-off. Friday lacked any real conviction in either direction, which supports the idea that the market is waiting on clarity—from the US–China talks today and the CPI report mid-week.
Be ready for either a balanced day with limited opportunity, or a headline-driven breakout. Trade what’s in front of you, not what you expect.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
21,935.00 → Pivot high from 6/5.
21,873.00 → Friday, 6/6 high.
21,855.00 → Friday’s VAH
Downside:
21,785.00 → Friday’s VAL
21,540.00 → S/R last week
21,180.00 → Resistance last week
Final Note on Today
This market is balanced, but primed. If you’re trading today, keep a close eye on the 1pm Apple keynote and headlines out of London. Big moves can come from small soundbites. Stay nimble. Stay sharp.
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