Daily Brief - Monday, 6/30/25
Market Rallies on Diminished Volatility and Fading Macro Risk, Eyes on Early Week Participation
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Tuesday - 7/1/25
9:30am EST - Powell, Lagarde, Bailey & Ueda Speak
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected: 52)
10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 48.8)
Wednesday - 7/2/25
8:15am EST - US ADP Employment Change (Expected: 110k)
Thursday - 7/3/25
8:30am EST - US Average Earnings YoY (Expected: 3.9%)
8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.3%)
8:30am EST - US Trade Balance (Expected: -69.8B)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: —)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 120k)
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Final (Expected: —)
9:45am EST - US S&P Composite PMI Final (Expected: —)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 7.8%)
10:00am EST - US ISM Services PMI (Expected: 50.8)
Friday - 7/4/25
US Holiday - Markets Closed
Prior Session Analysis - Friday, 6/27/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,707.50
High: 22,825.50
Low: 22,600.00
Close: 22,752.00
Settlement: 22,751.50
Range: 225.50 points / 902 ticks
Volume: 487,835
Open Interest Change: +1,562 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 22,810.00
Point of Control (POC): 22,784.75
Value Area Low (VAL): 22,700.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Friday delivered a Neutral Day with range extension on both sides of the Initial Balance (IB). Price opened at 22,707.50 and traded higher through the morning session, printing a new all-time high at 22,825.50. However, a macro headline shortly after 1:00pm triggered a sharp downside auction. That move tested into the 22,600 region, which was swiftly defended by buyers. From there, price auctioned back up into the IB and value area by the close.
Despite the two-way price action, the market closed just 34.5 points above the open, a sign of balance despite the directional volatility. The day finished near the upper end of the range, which leaned bullishly, and Value Area + POC both rotated higher, continuing the trend from earlier in the week. Price action was choppy at times but provided solid directional moves for patient momentum traders.
While Friday saw meaningful moves, it wasn’t a squeeze or liquidation event — rather, it resembled a straightforward test of higher and lower prices, ultimately closing near the upper mid-range.
Volume & Participation
otal Volume: 487,835 – up for a third straight session, signaling growing interest.
Open Interest: +1,562 contracts – modest gain, no strong sign of new conviction positioning.
Price Range: 225.50 points
Friday’s auction saw fairly balanced buy/sell volume and average trade size (~1.54 contracts), consistent with a two-sided market testing the edges of value. While we saw a new ATH, there was no follow-through breakout in volume or OI.
Final Thoughts
Friday’s session continued the upward rotation in value and structure, printing a new all-time high but closing well off it. This behavior reflects a market that is leaning bullish, but still tentative. Traders looking for the next breakout move should keep an eye on 22,825 — the current ATH — and watch for signs of initiative participation above that level.
That said, institutional conviction remains light, and Friday’s moderate OI gain supports the idea that this was a session of responsive, not aggressive, trade. Heading into the final trading days of the month and quarter, participation patterns and headline sensitivity will likely remain key drivers.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 6/30/25
Market Context
We’re kicking off the week with a strong overnight session — inventory is long at the time of writing, trading roughly 145 points above Friday’s settlement and ~75 points above Friday’s high. If this pricing holds, we are set to open out of balance to the upside, which raises the potential for a directional move early in the session.
Today is also Quarterly OPEX, with one of the biggest expirations on the board being the JPM Collar. These types of expirations often come with intraday volatility as large positions are closed, adjusted, or rolled. Combined with the gamma positioning in the market, we have a complex setup.
Speaking of gamma: dealers remain in a positive gamma regime, which typically acts as a stabilizing force. When dealers are long gamma, they’re often buying dips and selling rips, helping to contain volatility. This has contributed to the relentless grind higher we've seen over the last few sessions.
Adding to the tone, implied volatility has collapsed, with the VIX dropping from 20 to 16 last week. This is a strong signal that macro risk is being repriced lower—concerns around the Middle East, tariffs, and Fed uncertainty appear to be easing. That sentiment shift has helped fuel the bullish posture we’re seeing in price and structure.
Finally, it's worth noting we’re heading into a holiday-shortened week. Markets are closed Friday for Independence Day, and Thursday has a 1pm early close. Interestingly, many of the week’s key data releases have been front-loaded to Thursday morning, which could concentrate market movement earlier in the week. That, combined with OPEX today, raises the odds that most trading activity may be front-loaded into the early part of the week.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
We’re in an aggressively bullish environment, but we’re also extended. We’ve seen multiple sessions of out-of-balance opens with upward gaps, and this morning looks like another. However, remember: inventory corrections are common when we open this stretched. The probability of some form of early pullback or consolidation is elevated — though not guaranteed.
My mindset today:
Be ready for a fast-paced session early on as OPEX flows hit the tape.
If the gap holds and we accept above Friday’s high, I’ll be looking for continuation setups into new all-time highs.
If we reject the gap, watch for a potential inventory correction into Friday’s value area — but treat this as responsive, not yet a trend shift.
Remain flexible: today could bring either a clean directional move or messy chop driven by OPEX order flow.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
Note: We are trading in uncharted territory after setting a new all-time high. Levels above are based on overnight activity and psychological round numbers — expect price discovery to guide future resistance.
23,000.00 – Psychological round number (watch for responsive selling or magnet effect)
22,915.00 – Overnight high
Downside:
22,880.00 – Largest high-volume node (HVN) from Friday's session
22,825.50 → 22,810.00 – Friday’s RTH session high → Value Area High (VAH)
22,751.50 – Overnight low
22,700.00 – Friday’s Value Area Low (VAL)
22,600.00 – Friday’s RTH session low
Final Thoughts on Today
The stage is set for another active session, but with a twist. While bullish structure and momentum continue to lead, we’re entering a week full of event-driven catalysts, low IV, and holiday-related liquidity dynamics. It’s the kind of environment that rewards patience and tactical execution.
The market has stabilized significantly compared to the last few months. This does not mean risk is gone — just that perceived risk has been repriced. With PCE behind us, Powell’s testimony out of the way, and macro tensions easing for now, we may be entering a quieter—but still opportunity-rich—part of the trading calendar.
Trade the structure in front of you, manage risk tightly, and don’t force trades in the absence of clear signals. Let the market prove itself.
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