Daily Brief - Monday, 6/23/25
NQ Holds Up Overnight, But Don’t Trust the Quiet—RTH Will Speak Loudest
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Monday - 6/23/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 52.9)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 3.95M)
Tuesday - 6/24/25
10:00am EST - US Consumer Confidence (Expected: 99.8)
10:00am EST - Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress
Note: Possible 8:30am text release
Wednesday - 6/25/25
10:00am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.693M)
10:00am EST - Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress
Thursday - 6/26/25
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: 8.5%)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 245k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Final (Expected: -0.2%)
Friday - 6/27/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.3%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
Prior Session Analysis - Friday, 6/20/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,075.00
High: 22,130.50
Low: 21,765.00
Close: 21,842.75
Settlement: 21,844.75
Range: 365.5 points (1462 ticks)
Volume: 674,984
Open Interest (NQU5): +3,835
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,906.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,861.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,798.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Friday’s session formed a clear Normal Variation Day to the downside, reflecting initiative selling and a continuation of the broader weekly trend, which had been weak outside of Monday’s upward drive. Structurally, this capped off a week that included a double distribution profile on 6/17 and a balanced D-shaped profile on 6/18. The bias remained under pressure, and Friday’s action underscored that.
Price opened well within the prior range but quickly encountered strong seller aggression. The first 90 minutes featured a sharp move lower that drove price through the IB and down to test key higher timeframe support near 21,765.00—an area previously identified as important.
While price did re-enter the IB on six separate occasions on the 30-minute chart, each attempt was rejected, reinforcing the idea that lower prices were being accepted. This type of behavior is classic initiative selling control. Despite these re-entries, price ultimately closed well below the IB, emphasizing seller dominance throughout the session.
The profile formed a distinct "b" shape, indicative of long liquidation. Given the week’s overall downward tilt, this likely reflects traders caught leaning long earlier in the week having to unwind positions into end-of-week volatility.
There was some excess at the low, visible in the form of two single TPOs near 21,765.00, hinting that responsive buyers stepped in and that auction activity may have found temporary completion to the downside. This matches with how price found support just above the 6/13 low and the prior reference level at 21,765.50.
From late morning onward, the market ranged tightly in a band between 21,880–21,800, with several upside tests capped by shallow order flow. After the morning trend, the session deteriorated into a controlled chop, with failed attempts to build structure or momentum in either direction.
Volume & Participation
Volume: 674,984 — A high-volume day, especially notable for a summer Friday. This reflects active participation and continued repositioning.
Range: 365.5 points — A sizable range, particularly given how much of the move happened early in the session. This level of expansion is consistent with a long liquidation event and suggests there was significant emotion and urgency behind the selling.
Open Interest: +3,835 (NQU5) — A modest build in OI, paired with a liquidation-style profile, likely points to new short positions initiated into the weakness. This adds to the overall bearish tone heading into today’s session.
Final Thoughts
Friday reinforced the theme of the week: a market leaning heavier to the downside, digesting macro risk and geopolitical overhang. While Monday opened strong, the remainder of the week tilted bearish, and Friday’s session concluded with acceptance below value.
The rejection of the IB throughout the day, the “b” profile structure, and the small excess at the low suggest we may have seen a short-term bottom, but conviction is lacking. Any follow-through next session would need to reclaim the 21,920–21,950 band to signal a possible shift.
The pressure remains on, and barring a significant catalyst, this market still feels heavy—rotating lower in search of better buyers.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 6/23/25
Market Context
The geopolitical landscape took a sharp turn over the weekend. Late Saturday, the U.S. confirmed it launched coordinated airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. The initial expectation by many was for a steep selloff in response. However, overnight price action has been surprisingly contained. At the time of this writing, NQ is trading ~40 points below Friday’s settlement, indicating only mildly short overnight inventory.
This muted reaction likely ties back to the positive gamma positioning among dealers going into last Friday’s OPEX. When dealers are long gamma, they hedge by buying into weakness, effectively dampening volatility. This dynamic seems to have provided a short-term cushion in the overnight session, preventing a full risk-off cascade—at least for now.
But the real test will come during today’s RTH session, when institutional players return. The market will have to digest not just the U.S. strike, but also news that broke at 6:00am ET: Iran has reportedly retaliated, striking a U.S. base in Syria. This has yet to be confirmed by U.S. officials, but the potential for escalation is real and dangerous.
Further complicating the outlook, Iran’s government voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil exports flow. How the U.S., its allies, and regional players like Saudi Arabia respond will heavily influence market sentiment in the coming days.
If tensions worsen, we could see not just higher volatility, but potential repricing across risk assets, especially if broader war becomes a credible risk. Conversely, if both sides pause further escalation, markets may treat this as a one-off, already-priced event. Either way, headline sensitivity is now at peak levels, and traders must remain hyper-aware of the tape.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish with Headline Sensitivity
The market’s overnight tone is relatively calm considering the gravity of the weekend’s events, but don’t be fooled into complacency. This is not a typical session. We are operating under maximum headline risk, where a single news flash could send price 100+ points in either direction.
As a trader, you need to adapt your mindset accordingly. This environment can create opportunity, but it can just as easily create landmines. If you’re going to trade, focus on structure, stay nimble, and respect your stops. If you don’t have a strong edge or the ability to quickly adapt to news, this may be a day to observe rather than participate.
Don’t chase. Don’t assume you know how the market will interpret breaking developments. Let the price action confirm intent before stepping in.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
22,130.50 - Friday’s high
21,996.00 - High volume node from Friday, price paused here for about 15 minutes during Friday’s early selloff.
21,906.00 - Friday’s VAH
21,862.00 - Friday’s POC and highest volume node
Downside:
21,817.25 - Low from 6/13 and high volume node from Friday’s session.
21,798.00 - Friday’s VAL
21,794.25 - Friday’s session low
21,732.50 - Low from 6/5
Final Thoughts on Today
We're entering the week with the highest level of geopolitical uncertainty we've seen in years. Dealer positioning and OPEX mechanics helped dampen overnight volatility, but today's RTH session is the true litmus test for how markets will digest these developments.
Stay vigilant, stay informed, and know your risk tolerance before you commit capital today. If you're trading NQ, be aware that headline velocity is high and liquidity could disappear quickly if risk escalates. This is an environment for traders who are prepared, not gamblers hoping to catch a move.
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