Daily Brief - Monday, 6/16/25
NQ Pre-Market Nears Friday's High Ahead of FOMC and Rollover Week as Geopolitical Tension Looms.
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News Docket
Tuesday - 6/17/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: -0.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core Retail Sales MoM (Expected: -0.2%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: 0%)
Wednesday - 6/18/25
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.359M)
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 245k)
2:00pm EST - FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Expected: 4.5%)
2:30pm EST - FOMC Press Conference w/ Chairman Powell
Prior Session Analysis - Friday, 6/13/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,679.25
High: 21,854.75
Low: 21,600.25
Close: 21,644.75
Settlement: 21,644.25
Range: 254.5 pts (1,018 ticks)
Volume: 675,860
Open Interest:
NQM5: -36,527
NQU5: +38,492
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,780.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,675.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,619.75
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Friday opened with a significant gap down following Thursday evening’s news that Israel had launched air strikes on Iran. Traders came in positioned defensively, and price opened sharply lower, well below Thursday’s range and value area.
Despite the heavy macro backdrop, buyers stepped in early, driving price higher and managing to briefly reclaim Thursday’s low before being met with strong selling interest. That reclaim attempt failed, and price rotated back down for most of the afternoon.
Importantly, the session closed nearly flat relative to the open, with price finishing less than 2 points from where it began. This resulted in a session that lacked directional conviction, further reinforced by the day’s “Normal Variation” profile structure.
Additional key structural takeaways:
No excess on either end of the profile — an unusual and noteworthy signal that suggests unfinished business and potential for continued auctioning in both directions.
The profile took on a balanced structure throughout much of the day, with tight control between 21,600 and 21,800.
Strong offer liquidity remained in the book at 21,800 once the high of the day was established mid-morning. This became a firm ceiling that was never retested.
Meanwhile, firm buying liquidity appeared at 21,600 around 10:30am, which caught price twice in the afternoon and held firm, suggesting buyers willing to defend that area heading into Monday. What was substantial about this level was also that this liquidity increased as price moved lower towards it, there was no lifting of offers, buyers wanted to defend this level and get filled.
Value Area and POC both rotated lower — confirming that the market accepted this new lower pricing zone, at least for now.
Friday’s price action, despite the global headlines and morning volatility, became a rotation-dominated session with defined boundaries and no directional breakout, hinting at indecision heading into this week.
Volume & Participation
Volume: 675,860 — A monthly high, reflecting increased institutional activity due to rollover and macro catalysts.
Open Interest: Net change relatively neutral between contracts, but the large shift from June to September confirms active rollover.
Range: 254.5 points — A moderate expansion relative to prior sessions, though most of the movement occurred early in the session and around key liquidity levels.
Final Thoughts
Friday’s session showcased a market caught between macro uncertainty and mechanical rollover flows, creating a highly participatory but directionally indecisive day. The lack of excess on either end of the profile and the near-identical open/close signal a market that hasn’t made up its mind.
Despite geopolitical shockwaves from the Middle East, the response was more containment than capitulation. The clearly defined liquidity zones at 21,800 (sellers) and 21,600 (buyers) formed a tactical battlefield, one that held up impressively given the context.
As we move into expiration this week, we’ll be watching how price interacts with these levels and whether post-rollover flows and cooling macro tensions can spark the next directional move. If not, expect more balance and chop — but the ingredients are there for a breakout when conviction returns.
Today’s Analysis – Monday, 6/16/25
Market Context
As we begin the week, overnight inventory is long, with price trading ~151 points above Friday’s settlement near 21,795. This puts us firmly inside of Friday’s range but leaning toward the upper end — suggesting a potential test of Friday’s high if momentum continues.
Last week ended with a surge in volume and a wide-range session, both driven by contract rollover flows and escalating geopolitical risk. Friday’s sharp gap down on news of Israeli strikes against Iran was met with a rebound attempt midday, but the lack of excess on either end of the profile and a close near the open indicated a market searching for conviction amid volatility.
Now, we enter a week stacked with catalysts:
FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Markets will be hyper-focused on forward guidance, particularly given the recent cooling in inflation data.
G7 Summit: Potential headlines around global coordination, sanctions, or macroeconomic risks could trigger market movement.
Israel–Iran Conflict: No signs of de-escalation over the weekend. Continued military engagement introduces significant headline risk.
Rollover Week: NQM5 expires this Friday. The handoff to NQU5 is well underway, and price action could remain erratic as traders square up and roll positions.
While Friday’s volume (675k) and open interest shifts reflected intense participation, the session failed to resolve directionally. This morning’s upward movement suggests traders may be attempting to test higher prices, but until we break out of Friday’s range, we remain structurally in balance.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
We’re still in balance, but seeing signs of responsive buying after Friday’s selloff. That said, this is a low-conviction environment — driven more by macro headlines and calendar events than clean technical setups.
Today is a good day to be nimble and respect both sides of the range. I will only get directional if we break out of Friday’s high or low with tempo and conviction.
I plan to be patient through the morning — especially with potential headline risk from the G7 or Middle East, and with many large players possibly sitting on their hands ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement. Expect chop, and trade only if the market shows its hand.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
21,960.00 — Thursday’s VAH
21,900.00 — Thursday’s VAL.
21,854.75 – Friday’s high. Primary upside breakout level.
21,800.00 – Heavy sell-side liquidity on Friday. Sellers defended this level; if reclaimed, it could act as support. Was also an area of major liquidity this morning during overnight action. Was taken out at 7:38 but price rejected. Liquidity has not returned to this level at the time of this writing so leaves an opening for price to potentially move higher.
Downside:
21,780.00 – Friday’s VAH.
21,675.00 – Friday’s POC.
21,644.25 – Friday’s settlement.
21,620.00 – Friday’s VAL and structural support.
21,600.00 – Large buy-side liquidity Friday. Buyers stepped in here twice.
Final Note on Today
We’re heading into a high-impact news week with rollover dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty on the board. Despite the heavy context, price remains technically in balance. Today is likely to be range-bound unless headlines or order flow provide a reason to trend.
This is not the week to press low-probability trades — it’s the week to stay patient, manage size, and wait for opportunities to show up when the market is forced out of balance, likely around Wednesday’s Fed decision. Rollover weeks are notoriously choppy. It’s recommended to only take A+ setups this week and be ok sitting on the sidelines.
Watch the extremes. If we break out, follow with tight risk. If not, don’t get chopped up trying to force a move.
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