Daily Brief - Monday, 4/28/25

After last week's sprint, NQ might be catching its breath.Big tech earnings and PCE loom ahead — today's focus: patience, key levels, and letting the market show its hand.

Apr 28, 2025

This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.

Upcoming News

Tuesday - 4/29/25

10:00am EST - US JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 7.5M)
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 87.6)

Wednesday - 4/30/25

8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Advance (Expected: 0.4%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.2%)
10:00am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
10:00am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
10:00am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.6%)
4:05pm EST - Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings
4:40pm EST - Meta Q1 2025 Earnings

Thursday - 5/1/25

8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 224.5k)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected: 50.7)
10:00am EST - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 48)
4:00pm EST - Amazon Q1 2025 Earnings
4:30pm EST - Apple Q2 2025 Earnings

Friday - 5/2/25

8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.2%)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 130k)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 4.5%)

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Friday, 4/25/25

Session Stats

Open: 19,302.00
High: 19,563.00
Low: 19,233.75
Close: 19,530.00
Settlement: 19,535.25
Range: 329.25 pts, 1317 ticks
Volume (Est.): 588,335
Open Interest (Prelim): +5,009 (NQM25)

Value Area (Market Profile)

VAH: 19,550.00
POC: 19,375.25
VAL: 19,350.25

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Friday was a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the upside — meaning price moved beyond the initial balance but stayed relatively organized. Buyers maintained control for most of the session, and sellers had very little impact.

While the 329-point range wasn't huge, the Market Profile chart made it look larger due to the way prices rotated throughout the session.

Context matters:
Thursday showed strong buying with high conviction. Friday continued that bullish tone, but with less momentum — both volume and range were lighter compared to Thursday.
Even so, value and the POC continued to shift higher, reinforcing the buyers' control.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

On the 5-minute chart, a few key takeaways stood out:

Early seller attempts: In the first hour, there were two failed pushes lower, both stalling around 19,240. Buyers defended the area, but without much force — making it a "weak low" (meaning it might not hold in future sessions).
VWAP behavior: After the early battles, buyers kept price above VWAP for the rest of the day.
There were three opportunities to buy at VWAP pullbacks, offering solid low-risk entries.
Midday trend: Between 12:00 PM and 1:30 PM, there was a clean momentum trend higher. Price hugged the 9-EMA very neatly, making it a textbook with-trend environment for buyers.
Resistance at 19,550: Sellers showed up around 19,550, pushing price back to VWAP late in the day. However, after a brief dip, buyers lifted price again into the close — but once again faced resistance near 19,550.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest (Prelim): +5,009 (showing fresh buying interest)
Volume: ~588,000 (lighter compared to Thursday)
Range: 329 points (relatively modest)

Final Thoughts

Friday was a continuation of bullish sentiment but with less enthusiasm compared to Thursday. Buyers remained in control, but the lighter volume, smaller range, and the "weak low" around 19,240 are details worth keeping an eye on heading into today.

Pre-Market Plan – Monday, 4/28/25

Market Context

As of this writing, overnight inventory is slightly short, with price trading about 20 points below Friday’s settlement.
Currently, price remains inside Friday’s value area, suggesting a likely in-balance open unless a catalyst emerges before the bell.

Looking ahead:
This week brings major catalysts midweek, including PCE data and Big Tech earnings.
After last week's strong rally, it's not unusual for NQ to move into a period of sideways, balanced action as traders await fresh information.

If upside continuation occurs, it’s important to note: there is very little prior resistance between current levels and the key 20,000 psychological mark.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral
Mindset: Patience first.
I plan to wait and observe whether buyers extend last week's rally or whether sellers step back in — especially as we approach the significant news pivot area from April 2nd ("Liberation Day").

Key focus points for today:

VWAP — important Friday and overnight; I will watch for reactions here as potential trade opportunities.
Friday’s key levels — monitoring where participants are searching for fair value.
Developing Market Profile structure — adjusting as the day evolves.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside:

20,510.00 — Resistance from March 25th & 7th
20,000.00 — Major psychological level
19,612.00 — Weekly Kickoff High
19,563.00 — Friday’s session high; a break above could trigger more upside momentum

Downside:

19,350.00 — Friday’s Value Area Low; a break below would suggest participants are probing for lower fair value
19,230.00 — Support on Friday; previously resistance in mid-April; Friday’s weak low also formed here
19,000.00 — Psychological magnet level
18,750.00 — Multiple support bounces during April

Final Note on Today

Today’s setup calls for discipline and patience.
With a neutral bias and big events later this week, I will prioritize reading developing value areas and reacting to price behavior around VWAP and key levels rather than forcing trades.

Enjoying The Shmuts? Help Me Spread the Word
If you’ve been finding value in the Daily Brief or other posts, I’d be incredibly grateful if you shared The Shmuts with other traders—whether that’s in a Discord group, on social media, or just with a trading buddy. It only takes a few seconds, but it helps more than you know.
Thanks so much for your support!