Daily Brief - Monday, 4/21/25

Overnight inventory's deep in the red and OPEX is off the table—Monday's got downside written all over it unless a headline saves the day. Eyes on the gap and game face on.

Apr 21, 2025

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Upcoming News

Tuesday - 4/22/25

4:10pm EST - Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings

Wednesday - 4/23/25

9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Composite PMI Flash (Expected: -)
9:45am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.681M)
2:00pm EST - Fed’s Beige Book
4:10pm EST - IBM Q1 2025 Earnings

Thursday - 4/25/25

8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: 1.5%)
8:30am EST - US Core Durable Goods (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Continued Jobless Claims (Expected: 1.87M)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.14M)
4:00pm EST - Alphabet Q1 2025 Earnings
4:00pm EST - Intel Q1 2025 Earnings

Friday - 4/26/25

10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 50.8)

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Friday, 4/18/25

Session Stats

Open: 18,498.25
High: 18,526.00
Low: 18,261.50
Close: 18,373.25
Settlement: 18,380.75
Range: 264.5 pts / 1,058 ticks
Volume (Est.): 629,840
Open Interest (Prelim): -1,973 (NQM25)

Value Area (Market Profile)

VAH: 18,449.75
POC: 18,425.00
VAL: 18,350.00

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Friday shaped up as a Neutral day. After a brief move below the initial balance to 18,280 around 10:30–11:00 AM, buyers quickly stepped in and pushed price back higher. Interestingly, that same 18,280 level acted as support on April 11, marking the lower bound of that session’s range.

The day’s 264-point range was relatively tight, and price action remained entirely within Thursday’s range, making it an inside day. The POC and value area shifted downward, suggesting that participants accepted lower prices.

Last week displayed a pattern of high volatility on Monday and Wednesday, followed by more balanced, compressed sessions on Tuesday and Friday, both of which ended up as inside days.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

The intraday chart highlighted just how choppy and range-bound Friday was. Outside of the brief flush to 18,280, price remained stuck within the initial balance for the entire session.

For most of the day, price was locked between 18,511 (resistance) and 18,325 (support)—a narrow ~180-point range. There were few clean opportunities for directional trades. Momentum traders likely struggled, while scalpers may have found opportunities, though entries had to be precise to avoid getting caught in a quick reversal.

This was the kind of day where the best trade might’ve been to step away, touch grass, and wait for better conditions.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest: Decreased by 1,973 contracts—likely a result of traders unwinding positions ahead of the long weekend.
Volume: ~630k—lower than the prior session, reinforcing the idea of lower participation.
Range: 264.5 points—small relative to recent sessions, indicating a balanced, indecisive market.

Final Thoughts

Friday was a slow, inside session with little directional conviction. With volume and participation drying up ahead of the long weekend, and price acceptance shifting lower, traders were clearly in risk-off mode. Patience was the name of the game.

Pre-Market Plan – Monday, 4/21/25

Market Context

At the time of writing, overnight inventory is very short, trading roughly 250 points below Friday’s range. This suggests we’ll likely open with a downside gap.

With April OPEX now behind us and the artificial buoyancy from dealers unwinding short puts no longer a factor, the risk today appears skewed to the downside—unless a surprise headline shifts sentiment.

This week brings major earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and IBM, as well as durable goods orders, S&P PMIs, and job data later in the week. Expect volatility to pick up as we move through the calendar.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
Game Plan:

If we maintain this short overnight posture into the open, I’ll be watching closely for an Opening Range Breakout (ORB) to the downside, following standard gap rules.

If the ORB doesn’t materialize and we start moving higher toward a gap fill, I’ll exercise patience. One of my favorite setups is when a gap tries to fill but fails, then reverses back in the direction of the original gap (in this case, short). That kind of failed gap-fill setup can offer high-probability entries.

If neither of these setups unfolds, I’ll wait for clear momentum and sentiment before taking action.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside:

19,612.00 – Weekly Kickoff High
19,256.00 – Last week’s high
19,000.00 – Psychological magnet
18,592.00 – Powell pivot from last week — reclaiming this suggests his hawkish tone has been dismissed
18,261.00 – Friday’s session low

Downside:

18,116.00 – Last week’s low and prior demand zone; failure here is a key bearish signal
18,000.00 – Major psychological level — a decisive break implies serious downside intent
17,442.00 – Weekly Kickoff Low

Note: There’s limited historical structure between 18,000 and 17,000. If price drops into that zone, rely on intraday levels and volume structure until new reference points are formed.

Final Note on Today

The market looks vulnerable to downside continuation today. Patience and preparation will be key. Let the market reveal its hand—no need to force trades in low-conviction conditions.

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