Daily Brief - Monday, 4/14/25
After a weekend of tariff tango and tech whiplash, the market's opening with a bang. Gaps are in play, headlines are flying—grab your coffee, it's going to be one of those Mondays.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Wednesday - 4/16/25
8:30am EST - US Retail Sales MoM (Expected: 1.4%)
9:15am EST - US Industrial Production MoM (Expected: -0.2%)
1:30pm EST - Fed Chairman Powell Speaks
Thursday - 4/17/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US Housing Starts (Expected: 1.416M)
Friday - 4/18/25
Good Friday - Markets Closed
Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Friday, 4/11/25
Session Stats
Session Open: 18,415.50
Session High: 18,873.50
Session Low: 18,270.00
Session Close: 18,809.50
Settlement: 18,807.50
Value Area High (VAH): 18,899.75
Point of Control (POC): 18,744.25
Value Area Low (VAL): 18,500.50
Range: 603.5 pts, 2414 ticks
Estimated Volume: 669,057
Open Interest (Prelim): +152 (NQ)
Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Friday was a Normal Variation Day with a range extension to the upside — and this time, the market held that extension into the close. Value and POC rotated higher, and we settled near the session high, which typically signals bullish sentiment heading into the next session.
5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
The 18,600 level remained a key reference point, carrying over from Thursday. It acted as resistance early on, but once price broke above around 12:30 PM ET, it flipped to support.
We saw a textbook rejection of lower value in the first hour, as price bounced from just above Thursday’s VAL. That launched a steady auction higher for the rest of the day. By the afternoon, price consolidated near 18,860, and the lack of selling pressure into the close helped us finish at the high.
The move from 11:30 AM onward offered clean opportunities for with-trend setups.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: Preliminary +152 — barely a blip, and I suspect the final number may turn negative. For comparison, ES dropped 17k contracts Friday, and the sisters (NQ & ES) moved in sync.
Volume: 669k — lowest since March 28.
Range: 603.5 points — wide, but largely directional.
Final Thoughts
Friday’s action was methodical and clean. We saw a strong directional push off early support, price acceptance above key resistance, and a close near highs — all with fairly light volume and little new business (so far). The lack of heavier participation tempers the bullish signal slightly, but the structure leans positive.
Heading into the next session, I’ll be watching to see if we get follow-through or whether Friday’s move stalls without fresh buying interest.
Pre-Market Plan – Monday, April 14, 2025
At the time of writing, overnight inventory is long — up roughly +320 points from Friday’s close. We’re set to open out of balance with a gap to the upside.
Trade Plan
Primary Setup: Watching for an Opening Range Breakout
Key Consideration: We’re extended — expect potential for a pullback off the open
Gap Rules in Play: Given the size of the gap, I put the odds of a pullback at about 50/50
Beyond the open, I’ll stick with trend-following trades and scalp setups using the footprint chart.
Bias & Mindset
I’m entering the day cautiously bullish.
Last week’s 90-day tariff reprieve kicked off a major short squeeze, with NQ shedding 14,000 contracts as shorts exited the market. That forced buying fueled the bounce — but we haven’t yet seen new business come in to confirm the move.
One of the classic traps in this game is buying the squeeze, only to get caught long when it fizzles.
Until we see participation (via open interest and volume), I’m not interested in holding long overnight. Intraday trades only — I plan to be flat by the close.
⚠️ We’re still in a headline-driven environment. Stay tuned into the news cycle, especially with positions on.
What the Market’s Watching
Tech & Semiconductor Tariff News
Over the weekend, we got a classic case of mixed messaging:
First, the “exemption” headlines sent tech stocks soaring. Then came the walk-back — Trump officials clarified that tech and semiconductor stocks aren’t exempt from tariffs; they’re just in a different “bucket.”
Tech stocks are still green this morning, but the market often hears what it wants to hear... and then overreacts when it realizes the truth.
This has the potential to unwind fast — stay nimble.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Structure has started to re-emerge, but in this kind of tape, major psychological levels still dominate. With volatility high, these areas are more like zones than hard pivots.
19,375: Resistance + former support from early April
19,000: Psychological magnet + key overnight support
18,000 / 17,000: Deeper levels to the downside if sellers return with force
Keep in mind: Structure only matters until it doesn’t. If a fresh headline hits, price won’t care.
A Note on My Trading Results
You may have noticed I haven’t been posting my trading results this week. Here’s why:
I haven’t been trading the combine account.
The combine account only allows for a $2,000 drawdown, and in a market with this level of volatility, that’s simply not enough to trade responsibly.
When you’re seeing 500+ point moves in minutes and pullbacks of 100–200 points, it’s not realistic to use tight stops and stay within such a narrow risk window. You either end up trading scared or getting chopped up.
So until things calm down, I’ll be sitting out of that account.
I’ll resume posting results once the volatility comes back to earth.
A Word of Caution
You don’t have to trade this market.
Cash is a position. And sometimes, it's the best one.
When volatility’s high and headlines are everywhere, it’s easy to feel the urge to “do something.” But here’s a simple rule that’s always served me well:
The higher the VIX, the more experience it takes to trade effectively.
Yes — volatility brings opportunity. But it also brings risk, emotional reactivity, and account volatility. If you’re trading a small account or just not feeling dialed in, it’s perfectly okay to observe and wait.
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