Daily Brief - Monday, 3/24/25
With FOMC + OPEX behind us, all eyes will be on the April 2nd tariffs. Will we see a period of calm this week or will volatility continue?
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This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
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Monday - 3/24/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 51)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51.8)
9:45am EST - US S&P Composite PMI Flash (Expected: 51.3)
Tuesday - 3/25/25
10:00am EST - US New Home Sales - Units (Expected: 0.68M)
10:00am EST - US CB Consumer Confidence (Expected: 93.55)
Wednesday - 3/26/25
8:30am EST - US Durable Goods (Expected: -1%)
Thursday - 3/27/25
8:30am EST - US Initial Jobless Claims (Expected: 225k)
8:30am EST - US GDP QoQ Final (Expected: 2.3%)
Friday - 3/28/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 57.9)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Friday, 3/21/25
Session Open: 19,657.25
Session High: 19,974.00
Session VAH: 19,912.25
Session POC: 19,818.25
Session VAL: 19,724.75
Session Low: 19,607.50
Session Close: 19,953.00
Session Settlement: 19,961.00
Session Range: 366.5 pts, 1466 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +3,238 (NQ) / +5,550 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 613,615
Prior Session Analysis
Before diving into Friday’s session, let’s take a top-down look at the Daily chart. While NQ is showing a bit of a rally, price is still well within the broader downtrend range, and this move could just as easily be a pullback rather than a reversal. Personally, I’d want to see NQ close above 20,500 before considering that this may be more than just a retracement in a downtrend.
Another important topic to touch on is the options market, which plays a significant role in driving overall market movement. It’s always wise to keep an eye on options flow, as it often provides early signals of positioning and sentiment. The VIX was near 30 just two weeks ago but has since pulled back—largely due to the market successfully navigating through both FOMC and OPEX. With those events behind us, the next key focus is the April 2nd tariff deadline.
When looking at implied volatility (IV), there’s a clear divergence: IV is low on contracts expiring before April 2nd and notably higher on contracts expiring after. This tells me two things:
The market may be comfortable in its current range—at least for now. If you look at the MAG7, SPX, and NDX charts, you’ll notice a pattern of consolidation with some mild upward momentum. This could suggest we’re in a fair value zone, and unless fresh negative catalysts emerge, this week could be slow and uneventful.
There’s significant uncertainty around the April 2nd tariffs. The market seems unsure about the scope, sectors, and countries that will be affected. With limited clarity from Trump, elevated IV on post-April 2nd contracts reflects this hesitation and risk pricing.
Friday’s session was a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the upside. NQ added a bit of new business, gaining just over 3,000 contracts, but overall volume was light—only about 613K contracts traded, marking the lowest volume since February 20th.
The Market Profile for Friday may make the session look more dynamic than it actually was. If you look at the 5-minute chart, most of the session was sideways consolidation, punctuated by two notable upward auctions. If you weren’t prepared for those specific moves, it was likely a frustrating day to trade, with few clean opportunities outside those bursts.
Plan for Today - Monday, 3/24/25
As of this writing, overnight inventory is extremely long, trading nearly 300 points above Friday’s settlement price. When inventory stretches this far, my internal alarm bells go off, signaling a potential rebalancing move off the open. We’re set to open out-of-balance with a large gap to the upside.
With that in mind, gap rules will be in play, and I’ll be watching closely for an opening range breakout to the upside.
We also have PMI flash data releasing at 9:45 AM, and it’s important to be flat before that drop. I’m not a fan of 9:45 data releases—they can easily disrupt early trade setups and create volatility that’s tough to manage if you're already in a position. I’ll be flat heading into the release, and depending on how the market reacts, I may wait until after the data clears before taking any trades.
Levels I’ll be watching for today:
20,450 - area of resistance and support during the sessions on March 7th, 6th, and 5th.
20,275 - Weekly kickoff high
20,100 - area of resistance multiple times going back to March 10th.
20,000 - psychologic level, always an area to keep an eye on.
19,800 - area of support and resistance on March 20th, 19th, 18th, 17th, and 16th.
19,650 - area of support on March 21st, 18th, and 14th.