Daily Brief - Monday, 3/10/25
Friday we saw price break below the 20k level before rebounding significantly during the afternoon to close back above. Overnight inventory is already below 20k. Buckle up!
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Tuesday - 3/11/25
10:00am EST - US JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 7.665M)
Wednesday - 3/12/25
8:30am EST - US CPI YoY (Expected: 2.9%)
8:30am EST - US CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI YoY (Expected: 3.2%)
8:30am EST - US Core CPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Thursday - 3/13/25
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.2%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.5%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%)
Friday - 3/14/25
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 63.5)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Friday, 3/7/25
Session Open: 20,036.50
Session High: 20,286.25
Session VAH: 20,251.25
Session POC: 20,157.25
Session VAL: 19,987.50
Session Low: 19,765.50
Session Close: 20,224.00
Session Settlement: 20,229.75
Session Range: 520.75 pts, 2083 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +7,313 (NQ) / -2,490 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 763,257
Prior Session Analysis
Before diving into Friday’s session, let’s quickly review the Daily chart. On Friday, the Nasdaq (NQ) entered correction territory, falling 10% from its recent all-time high. While it didn’t close below 20,088—the technical threshold for a 10% correction—it seems likely to do so soon. If we assume the correction is fully in effect, the possibility of a range-bound or consolidating market diminishes. However, given the market’s current sensitivity, a single tweet or announcement could trigger a rally.
One notable feature on the Daily chart is the presence of long wicks on the bottom of recent daily candles as price auctions closer to 20,000. This suggests that while sellers are testing lower prices, buyers continue stepping in aggressively, absorbing liquidity around this key level. Whether this buying pressure slows the downward momentum remains to be seen.
Friday was a Neutral day, with range extensions on both sides of the Initial Balance (IB). Early in the session, price auctioned below 20,000 before rebounding sharply, reclaiming levels above the IB. Despite the initial downside movement, price spent most of the day at the upper end of the range, closing near the top. NQ added +7,313 contracts on strong volume (763K traded), indicating the introduction of new business.
Friday’s price action largely disregarded key technical levels. While we saw consolidation around 20,215—a level highlighted in Friday’s brief—other levels failed to exert any meaningful influence on price behavior.
When price auctioned below 20,000 and remained there for an extended period, it appeared that lower prices would dominate the session. However, at 12:30 PM, Powell’s remarks triggered a sharp rebound, sending price significantly higher—a move that caught many traders off guard, myself included. Right now, the market is highly reactive to news shocks, resembling a tennis match where traders must constantly adjust their focus.
Friday’s news-driven volatility created several momentum trade opportunities, but conditions were unpredictable. No trader could be faulted for staying on the sidelines rather than exposing capital to excessive risk. Given the market’s erratic behavior, caution remains warranted.
Plan for Today - Monday, 3/10/25
As of this writing, overnight inventory is extremely short, sitting -340+ points below Friday’s close and below the 20,000 level. While price is currently trading below Friday’s value area, it remains within Friday’s overall range, meaning the market is still technically in balance. For an out-of-balance open with a downside gap, price would need to auction at least 120 points lower. When overnight inventory is this short, it’s common to see a reversal at the NY open as price rebalances before the true market sentiment unfolds. This is not a prediction—as day traders, our job is to react to price action, not predict it. However, be mindful of potential reversals off the open.
My bias for today remains bearish. We are trading below VWAP, the emotion gauge is at Extreme Fear, and sentiment is firmly negative, with no news currently suggesting a shift. That said, this market remains highly news-sensitive—one unexpected tweet or announcement could cause a sharp reversal. Given this environment, always have a stop limit in place, monitor news feeds, and stay alert while holding a position.
Below 20,000, there is little historical price structure to reference for potential support levels. Additionally, the market is in extreme negative gamma, which, as discussed last week, can amplify price swings in either direction. Market makers must hedge in the direction of the move, further fueling volatility. While increased volatility presents more trading opportunities, it also raises risk—trade accordingly.
We are ten trading sessions away from the NQH25 expiration date (March 21st). While official rollover week begins next week, inventory adjustments to the June 2025 contract (NQM25) may start this week. Currently, there are 273K open contracts in NQH25 that must be rolled, closed, or allowed to expire within the next 10 sessions. Given the existing macro-driven volatility, this rollover process will introduce another layer of market instability. At this point, NQM25 only has ~11K contracts in open interest, but I will be monitoring the transition closely and reporting any significant shifts in contract volume.
Levels I will be watching today:
20,480 - a level of support on Wednesday, 3/5 and then resistance on Thursday, 3/6 last week. I think it would take a substantial rally to get up here today but if price rebalances off the open, it’s not out of the question.
20,286 - Friday’s session high which was put in late in the session. An auction by price above this could indicate a relief rally and higher prices are coming.
20,251 → 19,987 - this is Friday’s value area. Any auction of price back up into this area will be a hands off area for me most likely outside of perhaps some quick scalps if I see an opportunity. Typically trading inside of the prior session’s value area provides limited edge and there are no cheap trades here.
19,765 - Friday’s session low and also the Weekly low. This is a key risk off level. An auction down by price below this level and we have room to fall. Given the lack of prior price structure below this, it will be hard to say where support levels may appear for buyers to step in. This is no mans land and have stop limits in place and using trailing stops will be key to maximize profit while also protecting against a sharp reversal like we saw in Friday’s session.