Daily Brief - Friday, 8/22/25
The Waiting is Over: Powell's 10 AM Speech Will Decide Everything
Disclaimer
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News Docket
Friday - 8/22/25
8:00am EST - Jackson Hole Symposium (All-day)
10:00am EST - Fed Chairman Powell Speech
Prior Session Analysis - Thursday, 8/21/25
Session Stats
Open: 23,260.50
High: 23,348.25
Low: 23,119.00
Close: 23,217.50
Settlement: 23,219.75
Range: 229.25 points / 917 ticks
Volume: 527,989
Open Interest Change: +444 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 23,270.00
Point of Control (POC): 23,215.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 23,170.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Thursday was exactly what you'd expect the day before Powell speaks—an inside day with a compressed range compared to the previous session's drama. The market basically spent the entire session waiting, and you could feel the uncertainty in the air. Price stayed inside the initial balance for most of the session, with only a brief toe dip below around 1:30 PM that was quickly rejected by buyers.
The session developed into a normal day with a "D"-shaped profile and rotational character. Price closed in the bottom half of the range, which wasn't exactly what the bulls wanted to see heading into today's speech, but it wasn't a disaster either. The value area was smaller and contained within Wednesday's parameters, confirming the inside nature of the session.
There was excess at the bottom of the profile but none at the top, suggesting the market was comfortable rejecting lower prices but wasn't ready to make a strong upward move without more information. The POC positioned right in the middle of the value area at 23,215 shows the market found reasonable balance while everyone waited for today.
It was honestly a choppy session to trade—the kind where you're better off sitting on your hands rather than trying to force something that isn't there. When markets are in "wait and see" mode like this, they often don't provide great opportunities until the catalyst arrives.
NQ’s value area contracted significantly, settling between 23,170 and 23,270 with the POC at 23,215. The compression within Wednesday's range confirms this was purely a consolidation session ahead of Powell's speech.
The balanced positioning of the POC suggests participants were comfortable with current pricing while they waited for more information from the Fed.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 527,989 – lower than Wednesday's surge but still reasonable for a waiting day
Open Interest: +444 contracts (NQU5) – very little change, signaling participants had used prior sessions to position and adjust inventory
Price Range: 229.25 points / 917 ticks – a healthy range for NQ but lower than prior days reflecting the anticipatory nature of the session
The minimal open interest change tells us that yesterday was mostly a wait-and-see day with likely less institutional participation than we've seen recently. Everyone's basically done their positioning and now they're waiting to see what Powell says.
Final Thoughts
Thursday was the calm before the storm—the kind of session where everyone's holding their breath waiting for the main event. The market did what it needed to do: consolidate recent moves and position for whatever Powell throws at us today.
The fact that we held above key support levels during the waiting period is mildly encouraging, but let's be honest—none of yesterday's action will matter much once Powell starts talking at 10:00 AM.
Today’s Analysis – Friday, 8/22/25
Market Context
Well, here we are—the day the market has been waiting for. The NQ is currently trading at 23,255.75, about 36 points above yesterday's settlement, with neutral overnight inventory. The overnight range between 23,280.75 and 23,076.75 has been reasonably contained, and we're opening in balance as everyone awaits Powell's speech at 10:00 AM.
The volatility environment has normalized slightly, and we appear to be back in positive gamma territory with dealers buying dips—for now. The VIX is down a bit this morning almost 1% to 16.43. But all of that could change rapidly depending on what Powell says in a few hours.
QQQ has a put wall at 520 and a call wall at 570, and these levels will be critical to watch. If the put wall gets breached, dealer behavior will flip to selling into weakness and buying into strength. If the call wall gets breached, we'll be comfortably in positive gamma territory, which would likely lead to a test of all-time highs again.
Bias & Mindset
Longer Term Bias: Bullish
Today’s Bias: Neutral
I'm staying completely neutral today because honestly, trying to predict what Powell's going to say is a fool's errand. I expect choppy conditions prior to his speech and high volatility once he begins speaking. I'll trade the market as it lies rather than trying to position for what I think might happen.
The setup is pretty straightforward: if Powell indicates a rate cut will happen next month, the market will probably roar higher. If Powell comes out hawkish and says anything about needing to wait longer for tariff inflation data, the market is probably going to go down. Don't try to predict it—react to it.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
23,348.25 — Yesterday's high
23,280.75 — Overnight high
23,270 — Yesterday's VAH
Downside:
23,170 — Yesterday's VAL
23,119 — Yesterday's low
23,076.75 — Overnight low
Final Thoughts on Today
Here's the thing about today: you can ignore most traditional levels because they probably won't matter much given the expected volatility once Powell starts speaking. High volatility equals opportunity, but it's also difficult to trade. There's typically a lot of back-and-forth movement that can easily stop you out, but trading without stops is very dangerous because of the risk of large moves in either direction.
The key gamma levels in QQQ (put wall at 520, call wall at 570) will be more important than any individual price levels in NQ. These will determine whether we're operating in a regime that supports risk assets or one that works against them.
My advice for today: be careful, and it's perfectly okay to sit this one out if you're not comfortable with the potential volatility. Sometimes the best trade is no trade, especially when you're dealing with binary outcomes from Fed talking heads.
Powell's words will likely determine not just today's direction but potentially the market's character for the next several weeks. Position accordingly, which for most people probably means smaller size and wider stops—or just watching from the sidelines until the dust settles.
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