Daily Brief - Friday, 6/27/25
Three Gaps and a Data Drop: Will Today Break the Slow Tempo Pattern?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Friday - 6/27/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.3%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.6%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
Prior Session Analysis - Thursday, 6/26/25
Session Stats
Open: 22,552.25
High: 22,694.00
Low: 22,476.00
Close: 22,673.25
Settlement: 22,669.25
Range: 217.75 points points / 871 ticks
Volume: 405,058
Open Interest Change: +7,424 (NQU5)
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 22,685.00
Point of Control (POC): 22,652.50
Value Area Low (VAL): 22,575.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Yesterday’s session was a Normal Variation day with range extension to the upside that held firm, signaling continued buyer strength. The market displayed a “P” shaped profile, characteristic of a slow, methodical grind upward rather than a sharp short squeeze, a view supported by the positive open interest change.
The day began with a small gap up of less than 20 points. Price showed some early chop during the first 20 minutes before settling into a gradual auction higher through most of the session. Around 2pm, price consolidated in a tight range near 22,640 to 22,690, with limited momentum thereafter.
Despite the upward price action, volume was relatively subdued and the range moderate, indicating light institutional participation. This pattern is consistent with the theme of the week, aside from Monday’s elevated activity. The limited participation likely reflects post-rollover positioning by institutions who are awaiting clearer market signals.
This type of slow, grindy session tends to reward traders with patience who establish early positions and hold, while punishing momentum traders and scalpers caught in the chop. It highlights the importance of adapting to market tempo and knowing when to stay sidelined.
Volume & Participation
Total Volume: 405,058 – a slight uptick from recent lows but still modest compared to earlier June sessions.
Open Interest: +7,424 contracts – a notable increase indicating fresh new positioning consistent with the upward price movement.
Price Range: 217.75 points
The combination of rising open interest with moderate volume suggests renewed institutional engagement, albeit measured, reinforcing the session as one of gradual accumulation amid a quiet macro environment.
Final Thoughts
Friday’s action confirms buyer control but with measured participation, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode following rollover week and ongoing geopolitical concerns. The stage is set for a potential shift following the PCE inflation report, but until then, patience and selective trading remain key.
Traders should focus on disciplined entries and respect the slow-moving price action, avoiding the urge to chase during this low-tempo grind.
Today’s Analysis – Friday, 6/27/25
Market Context
This morning’s spotlight is on the PCE inflation report at 8:30am, a key metric for the Fed’s inflation outlook and a potential catalyst for directional movement. With recent CPI and PPI data coming in cooler than expected, the market will be highly sensitive to any confirmation or contradiction in today’s PCE figures.
We’re currently poised for a third consecutive out-of-balance open — overnight inventory is long, trading roughly 100 points above yesterday’s settlement and 70 points above yesterday’s range. But that setup could shift quickly depending on how markets digest the PCE data.
On the macro front, headline risk remains muted. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding, albeit tenuously. Traders appear to be refocusing on domestic issues: Fed policy, trade negotiations, and Trump’s proposed tax package.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
Heading into today, my bias is neutral and reactive, not predictive. If PCE data surprises, expect a directional response with potential for trend-like behavior. If it’s in line, we may slip back into the low-volume, grindy structure that’s characterized much of the week.
After a week of slow upward auctioning and weak institutional participation, today presents a real possibility for momentum to return. But I’m also prepared to sit out if the action doesn’t suit my trading style. Remember: discipline over activity. Let the market prove it’s offering opportunity before getting involved.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
Note: We are very close to setting an all-time high and may do so before the market opens today. It’s impossible to know levels beyond until price moves higher.
22,780.75 - All-time high and pivot high from Feb 18th.
Downside:
22,694.00 - Yesterday’s High
22,685.00 - VAH and bottom of largest HVN in Yesterday’ session
22,660.00 - Overnight Low
22,603.00 - Yesterday HVN
22,575.00 - Yesterday’s VAL and HVN
22,476.00 - Yesterday’s Low
Final Thoughts on Today
Today’s open and early structure will be heavily influenced by the 8:30am PCE data. If the market embraces the gap and drives higher, it may confirm recent bullish structure. If not, a gap fade or retracement into yesterday’s range becomes likely.
With the week winding down and few headlines on deck, don’t be surprised if participation remains thin post-10am unless a catalyst sparks movement. Know your setups, protect your capital, and let the market come to you.
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