Daily Brief - Friday, 6/13/25
NQ Opens Deep in Red After Israel-Iran Strike, Overnight Inventory Very Short
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News Docket
Friday - 6/13/25
10:00am EST - Univ Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 53.5)
Prior Session Analysis - Thursday, 6/12/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,829.50
High: 21,977.25
Low: 21,818.50
Close: 21,936.50
Settlement: 21,932.50
Range: 158.75 points (635 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 422,394
Open Interest:
NQM5: +2,445
NQU5: +11,812
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,960.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,935.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,900.00
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Thursday’s session was an Inside Day with a “P”-shaped profile, suggesting short covering or responsive buying after a weak overnight and early session. The day’s range compressed relative to Wednesday, continuing the alternating pattern we’ve seen for several weeks now: inside → outside → inside.
Price opened just under the 22,000 level, made an attempt to test higher during the first 2 hours, but was quickly rejected. The market couldn’t sustain bids above 21,977, and the early optimism faded fast. Despite news and macro context still favoring a bullish outlook, the market again failed to hold above 22,000 — now shaping up as a meaningful psychological and technical lid.
Throughout the day, price swept the prior session’s VAL (21,890.00) but found firm responsive buying, especially around 21,890. These sweeps, followed by sharp rejections, left behind a prominent buying tail and reinforced that buyers remain active at lower prices. However, conviction was still lacking, and the structure never gained strong momentum to the upside. Price eventually rotated back into the value area and settled just beneath the session POC.
While the P-shape is often viewed as bullish and indicative of short covering, the overall session was choppy and rotational beyond the first hour — difficult trading conditions that lacked strong directional conviction. We continue to observe markets hesitating around major breakout levels, waiting for either macro confirmation or clearer economic direction.
The downward rotation of value and POC confirms that the market is acknowledging lower prices, at least in the short term. That said, it’s worth noting that open interest increased significantly — especially in the U contract — which could suggest position building in anticipation of upcoming catalysts or simply a function of the rollover process beginning to accelerate.
Volume & Participation
Volume: 422,394 — The lightest session since early May, reflective of pre-rollover indecision and seasonally slower summer activity.
Open Interest:
NQM5: +2,445 — Still holding some business despite nearing expiry next week.
NQU5: +11,812 — A clear sign that rollover is underway and participation is shifting to the U contract.
Range: 147.50 points (590 ticks) — A notably compressed range following Wednesday’s expanded action; reflects the inside day structure and lack of directional conviction.
Final Thoughts
This market continues to send mixed signals — structurally it looks like it wants to go higher, but price can’t sustain above 22,000. That’s not a level to break through lightly, and the repeated failures suggest market participants are waiting for stronger confirmation or resolution to ongoing macro uncertainties.
The inside day sets up for potential expansion today — keep an eye on directional cues early, especially around key breakout or breakdown areas. With rollover in play and summer trade in effect, we should expect some friction in follow-through until volume fully migrates to the U contract and headline catalysts clarify direction.
Today’s Analysis – Friday, 6/13/25
Market Context
Overnight inventory is very short, with NQ trading around 21,676.50, which is ~256 points below yesterday’s settlement. This shift comes on the heels of a major geopolitical development: Israel launched substantial military strikes on Iran overnight, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Markets have responded with a typical flight-to-safety reaction: oil futures are spiking, the dollar is firming, and equity indices are under pressure. While headlines like these typically produce a knee-jerk reaction overnight, the real question today is whether U.S. session participants will treat this as a “buy-the-dip” opportunity or if risk-off sentiment deepens.
Structurally, we’re coming off a low-volume inside day with a "P"-shaped profile, suggesting passive short-covering but little initiative buy interest. Importantly, price was unable to reclaim 22,000 yesterday, and both Value Area and POC rotated lower — a sign of weakening demand near highs. Today, that lack of conviction is being tested.
Adding another layer to today’s potential volatility, we’ve got the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data at 10:00am ET. This release has consistently moved markets in recent months, so it’s one to prepare for. Set an alarm, be flat into the number, and be alert for post-data volatility.
We are set to open out-of-balance below the prior session’s range. This calls for gap trade strategies and patience off the open.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Bearish → Neutral
Today’s session begins with geopolitical risk dominating the narrative and a clear imbalance lower. That leans the early bias bearish — but only tentatively. As we’ve seen before, these kinds of moves can quickly unwind if headlines cool or dip buyers step in with size. Keep your bias flexible and let price action confirm direction.
Also, we’re heading into Friday of rollover week, with headline risk and macro data (U. Mich) in play. That makes it a day where your discipline and adaptability matter more than your trade ideas. I’ll be watching the first 30–60 minutes closely to see if the market finds footing or continues to accept lower prices. If it wants to bounce, I’ll look for a failed gap down or VWAP reclaim to participate. If it wants to slide, I’ll let the sellers lead and join the move when structure permits.
Either way — size down, tighten risk, and stay patient. The best move might not come until after the 10am data release.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
21,960.00 – VAH from yesterday
21,935.00 – Yesterday’s POC
21,932.50 – Settlement from 6/12 (gap fill target)
21,900.00 – Yesterday’s VAL (key to regaining balance)
21,877.00 — Overnight news pivot where price dropped off a cliff.
Downside:
21,650.00 – High-volume node from early June
21,540.00 → 21,500.00 – Structural S/R band from early rollover week
21,471.00 – Current overnight low
21,445.00 – May 30th session low and potential support
Final Note on Today
Today is all about risk management and tape reading. The overnight news is a wildcard, and while it has created directional imbalance, we’ve seen similar news-driven moves fade before. Still, we must respect the potential for volatility — especially on a summer Friday during contract rollover.
Expect higher-than-usual two-way trade and wider stops. If you’re already green on the week, this may be a day to protect gains and reduce size. But if the market offers a clean opportunity — especially in the first hour — it may be worth taking.
Above all, stay calm, watch the flow, and trade what the market gives you — not what the headlines tell you.
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