Daily Brief - Friday, 5/9/25

When Price Moves on Possibilities, Don’t Be Surprised If It Reverses on Reality

May 09, 2025

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News Docket

Nothing notable for today.

Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Thursday, 5/8/25

Session Stats

Open: 20,163.00
High: 20,337.25
Low: 19,979.00
Close: 20,145.25
Settlement: 20,148.00
Range: 358.25 pts (1433 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 568,655
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +3,956

Value Area (Market Profile)

Value Area High (VAH): 20,363.00
Point of Control (POC): 20,268.25
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,137.00

Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart

Thursday was a Neutral Day, with range extension on both sides of the Initial Balance.

The upside extension was more dramatic, pushing well above the IB, before a late-day selloff reversed a significant portion of the move.
The final 30 minutes saw a ~160-point drop, pulling price back into the middle of the day’s range.

Interestingly, NQ settled 15 points below its opening price, despite the strong intraday rally — a rare outcome considering the magnitude of the earlier move.

📌 Additional Profile Notes:

A weak high formed around 20,343
No excess tails or single prints at either extreme — uncommon, and typically indicative of a balanced auction with no strong initiative by either side

In short: while the day felt volatile, the profile says it was surprisingly orderly.

5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session

Gap fill off the open was clean and fast — completed in just 40 minutes.
At 10:00 AM, Trump began speaking on the UK trade deal, but price continued to auction down — early signs the market wasn't overly impressed.
Around 11:00 AM, sentiment flipped sharply when Trump shifted his focus to the EU and China.

That moment marked a clear momentum opportunity — textbook price + news alignment.

No concrete trade deal news was shared, but the market rocketed higher on "possibilities."

Once again: the rally appears to be built on hope, and as Red said in Shawshank Redemption,
“Hope is a dangerous thing.”

The session eventually found a ceiling around 20,315, chopping around the key level of 20,277 (last week’s high) through much of the afternoon.

At 3:30 PM, the market shifted again — a ~160-point bearish spike into the close wiped out the majority of the earlier rally, resulting in NQ settling below its open.

Volume & Participation

Open Interest: +3,956 — nearly triple the gain from Wednesday, showing increased positioning
Volume: ~568k — slightly lower than Wednesday, but still solid
Range: 358 points — essentially unchanged from the previous session

Final Thoughts

Thursday delivered macro-driven intraday swings that looked more volatile than they were structurally.

The market continues to overreact to soft guidance and political soundbites — jumping on potential EU/China deals with no real substance.
Price rejected higher levels late, but we remain in a consolidation zone around 20,277 — the key battleground for direction. As mentioned yesterday, NQ needs to close above 20,277 to set a new higher high and break the downtrend structure on the higher timeframe charts.

If this rally is truly going to transition from “hope” to “conviction,” we’ll need to see sustained strength above 20,277–20,315 — and ideally backed by volume and commitment, not just headlines.

Pre-Market Plan – Friday, 5/9/25

Market Context

As of this writing, overnight inventory is slightly long, with price trading about +60 points above Thursday’s settlement. Overnight price action has been flat and neutral, showing no strong directional bias.

There was a brief pop in volatility around 7:30 AM ET, following new posts from Trump on Truth Social regarding China, but the market quickly settled back into a sideways pattern.

Currently, price sits mid-range, below Thursday’s POC. Unless we see a large move before the bell, we are set to open in-balance, meaning the market is accepting yesterday’s value for now.

Although there are no major scheduled economic releases, don’t let your guard down — macro themes are still in play. China trade chatter remains a potential catalyst. Trump has a pattern of sticking to whatever is moving the market, so more posts, interviews, or “trial balloon” leaks could stir things up intraday.

If you're trading today: keep a news feed close.

Bias & Mindset

Bias: Neutral

To be blunt — I’m tired. Mentally, I don’t have gas in the tank today. It’s Friday, and I’m taking the day off.

It took me years (and a fair amount of drawdowns) to recognize this feeling and give myself permission to step away when needed. If you feel the same — I encourage you to do the same. Cash is a position.

For those planning to trade:

We’re likely opening in-balance
No scheduled catalysts, but macro landmines remain
Patience is key
Use tight stops
Trail your winners and be prepared for sudden reversals

If you don’t see clean structure — sit on your hands.

Key Levels I’m Watching Today

Upside Targets:

20,537.00 — Higher timeframe swing high; a break above could open up a run toward the 22,400 area
20,350.00 → 20,480.00 — Major resistance zone from late March
20,337.00 — Yesterday’s session high
20,277.00 — Last week’s high; acted as a major battleground yesterday

Downside Levels:

20,000.00 — Major psychological level
19,950.00 — Prior resistance; now potential support
19,760.00 — Support zone tested repeatedly over recent sessions
19,540.00 — Daily confluence of 50-day MA and 21-day EMA
19,470.00 — Weekly Kickoff Low

Final Note on Today

This market still runs on macro fumes — and the most dangerous moves are often headline-driven and hard to anticipate.

If you’re in the chair today: be patient, stay nimble, and protect your capital.

If you’re not feeling sharp — take the day. That’s what I’m doing.

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