Daily Brief - Friday, 5/30/25
Headline Ping-Pong: NQ Stays Sideways as Market Waits for Clarity
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Catch me on Twitter @TheShmuts during the day covering the session as it develops.
NOTE: I will be on vacation next week. The Daily Brief will return on June 9th.
News Docket
Friday - 5/30/25
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.2%)
8:30am EST - US PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.1%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Expected: 2.5%)
8:30am EST - US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Expected: 0.11%)
8:30am EST - US Consumer Spending MoM (Expected: 0.2%)
10:00am EST - Univ Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 51)
Prior Session Analysis - Thursday, 5/29/25
Session Stats
Open: 21,674.25
High: 21,679.75
Low: 21,301.00
Close: 21,411.50
Settlement: 21,408.50
Range: 378.75 pts (1515 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 566,169
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +1,524
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 21,491.00
Point of Control (POC): 21,405.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 21,349.75
Prior Session Breakdown - Market Profile and NY Session
Thursday’s session was a Normal Variation day with downside range extension that failed to hold, as price auctioned back into the value area before the close.
We opened with a ~105-point gap above Wednesday’s range, but for the second time this week, that gap filled within the first 15 minutes—a key indication of a market still in balance. The Market Profile took on a “b” shape, often associated with long liquidation, which could suggest NQ is topping or consolidating near current levels.
Looking at the last three sessions together, price action has moved sideways, despite the headlines, gaps, and news-related swings. Structurally, this is a market waiting for more information, not one decisively trending in either direction.
Thursday was also an Outside Day, engulfing the entire range of the prior session. The POC and value area rotated downward, and we did see excess on the top of the profile via a single-print selling tail, but no excess at the bottom—just two quick failed breaks below support around 21,320, where buyers stepped in strongly both times.
On the 5-minute chart, VWAP was respected throughout the session, and sellers had control. Traders who were patient and disciplined with a VWAP strategy likely found multiple solid setups.
Unlike recent days, there was no late-day spike, which is noteworthy. It speaks to a lack of conviction from either side going into the weekend. Add in the failed breakout above 21,558.50 this week, and Thursday’s session reads like profit-taking and indecision, not a breakdown or breakout.
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +1,524 — small increase, possibly indicating new short interest on the auction down.
Volume: ~566k — higher than the recent session average, giving more weight to the moves.
Range: 378 pts — largest range this week, also an Outside Day.
Final Thoughts
The market continues to look active on the surface, but under the hood we’re seeing signs of balance: repeated gap fills, sideways structure, and muted conviction into the close. Thursday’s profile shows signs of long liquidation, and buyers defending key support zones like 21,320 hint that we’re in a healthy pullback or consolidation, not a panic-driven environment.
Keep watching VWAP behavior and price around 21,558.50, which remains the key breakout level on the higher timeframe. Until price cleanly holds above that, expect more chop and headline-driven indecision. Headlines around tariffs, legal battles, and macro policy are keeping the market cautious—expect more of the same unless something big changes.
Today’s Analysis – Friday, 5/30/25
Market Context
At the time of writing, overnight inventory is short—about 80 points below Thursday’s settlement, sitting just inside the prior session’s range by roughly 20 points. We’re hovering close to balance, but could easily open out-of-balance if momentum picks up closer to the bell.
This morning’s PCE and Consumer Spending data came in right on expectations, and the market’s reaction has been muted, reinforcing the idea that we remain in a waiting game for clearer direction.
On the political front, tariffs are back on after a late-day court ruling reversed Wednesday’s decision, pending a full appeal. This saga is far from over and likely heading to the Supreme Court eventually. In the meantime, uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. It’s the kind of news flow that makes business planning nearly impossible and introduces longer-term market stress. That might not impact today directly, but it’s something to watch heading into the next earnings cycle.
Big picture: the market has been sideways since Tuesday, consolidating gains and balancing after a volatile few weeks of gaps and geopolitical headlines. Unless something new grabs the market’s attention today, this may remain a choppy, indecisive session.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
We’ve seen a slight expansion in range, but overall the market is balancing with no real conviction yet. My mindset today is to be extra cautious—not just because of the market context, but also because I’m on vacation next week.
An old trading mentor used to say: “Never end the week on a red day.” One of the best pieces of advice, it sucks stewing on a losing day all weekend much less all next week. I’ll be less aggressive than usual, focused only on setups that show clear tempo and conviction. If the market is dull and slow, I’ll be sitting out.
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
21,679.75 – Thursday’s high; breakout continuation above this could be meaningful
21,558.50 – Key higher timeframe breakout level (5/27 high)
21,491.00 – Value Area High (VAH) from yesterday
21,420.00 – Overnight high
Downside:
21,320.00 – Key support; strong buyer defense this week
21,194.00 → 21,082.00 – Unfilled gap zone from Tuesday’s open
Final Note on Today
The market’s still coiling—range expanded yesterday, but no breakout yet. Tariffs back on, but no panic. PCE landed quietly, and the market is still waiting. If we do break from balance today, it will likely need momentum, not just headlines, to sustain it.
Be patient. Don’t press. Protect your week. I’ll be trading light or not at all—it's been a headline-heavy stretch, and sometimes the best position is no position. Have a great weekend.
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