Daily Brief - Friday, 5/2/25
Mixed jobs data and muted reaction to weak earnings keep NQ in limbo — Friday’s edge goes to patience and discipline.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
News Docket
Friday - 5/2/25
8:30am EST - US Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.2%)
8:30am EST - US Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: 137k)
10:00am EST - US Factory Orders MoM (Expected: 4.5%)
Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Thursday, 5/1/25
Session Stats
Open: 19,971.00
High: 20,125.75
Low: 19,757.25
Close: 19,877.75
Settlement: 19,870.75
Range: 368.5 pts (1474 ticks)
Volume (Est.): 589,751
Open Interest (Prelim, NQM5): +648
Value Area (Market Profile)
Value Area High (VAH): 20,025.25
Point of Control (POC): 20,006.25
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,913.00
Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Thursday was a Neutral-Extreme Day, meaning price extended both above and below the initial balance, showing active participation from both buyers and sellers.
What gave the session its “Extreme” tag was that price closed at the lower extreme, indicating that other timeframe sellers took control into the close and ultimately “won” the day.
Notably:
Even with the late-session bearish spike, both POC and value area rotated higher, continuing the trend seen in 6 of the last 7 sessions.
This upward value shift underscores the underlying bullish control, despite the weak close.
📌 Context:
This rally is still primarily fueled by optimism, especially around the expectation of upcoming trade deals.
However, it’s important to remember that sentiment can flip quickly — any shift in headlines could reverse this tone.
Be cautious with extended long exposure in this environment. Take what the market gives, but protect yourself.
5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
The session can be broken into three distinct phases:
1. Indecision Off the Open
Small pullback but no real attempt at a gap close
Driven by Initial Jobless Claims, which came in hotter than expected:
241K actual vs. 223K expected
Added to existing concerns from earlier employment data this week
2. Morning Strength and VWAP Hold
Mixed Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 and 10:00 added fuel to a sharp upward auction
After some whipsaw, VWAP was reclaimed around 10:20 AM
Strong uptrend followed, with NQ pushing above 20,120 — hinting at possible continuation
3. Rejection and Late-Day Bearish Spike
Around 11:30 AM, price was sharply rejected above 20,120
Level wasn’t retested for the rest of the session
Looked like a failed auction, though arguably due to buyer exhaustion more than seller aggression
From midday to late afternoon, price action turned sideways and choppy
At 3:30 PM, a sharp 250-point drop into the close completed a full gap fill with the prior day’s range
This strong bearish spike signals potential for continuation into today’s session
Volume & Participation
Open Interest: +648 — low increase, signaling a mostly neutral day in terms of new business
Volume: ~589k — lower than Wednesday’s session
Range: 368 points — almost half the range of Wednesday’s session
Final Thoughts
Thursday delivered a session that started balanced, hinted at bullish continuation, and then closed in weakness with a decisive move by sellers.
The rally remains intact, but yesterday’s late-session selloff is a clear reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift — especially in a news-driven tape.
Going into today, watch closely for either follow-through selling or signs of buyers stepping back in to defend the upward structure.
Pre-Market Plan – Friday, 5/2/25
Market Context
As of this writing, overnight inventory is mostly long, with price trading roughly +125 points above yesterday’s settlement.
It’s worth noting that yesterday’s session low held as support twice overnight. After those tests, price moved sideways with little conviction — until the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report came in hotter than expected, easing some of the labor market concerns that had built earlier in the week.
The market responded bullishly to the jobs data.
Currently, NQ is trading inside yesterday’s value area, suggesting an in-balance open — though we’re now only about 100 points below yesterday’s range high, so a slight out-of-balance open is still possible by the RTH bell.
Bias & Mindset
Bias: Neutral
Today is all about patience.
While Amazon and Apple earnings disappointed (particularly on forward guidance), the overnight reaction was muted in NQ. Both stocks are down individually, but index-level impact was limited. I’ll be watching closely to see how RTH participants respond off the open.
It’s Friday, and the market remains highly headline-sensitive. We’ve seen 6 up days out of the last 7, and yesterday’s late-day bearish spike — paired with low open interest gain — adds caution to the bullish narrative.
That said, the fact that price didn’t sell off further overnight, even after poor earnings, shows underlying strength. In short: mixed signals, and I don’t have a strong directional read today.
My approach:
Be patient
Let setups come to me
If price action is clean and directional, I’ll trade
If we get chop or low conviction, I’ll stay on the sidelines
I’ll keep one eye on the news feed at all times
Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Upside:
20,895.00 — Resistance zone from early March and late February
20,350.00 → 20,480.00 — Cluster of resistance from late March
20,120.00 — Yesterday’s failed auction high; often these levels are retested
20,000.00 — Major psychological level
Downside:
19,757.00 — Yesterday’s low; break below could indicate sellers probing for lower value
19,612.00 — Weekly Kickoff High; S/R pivot all week
19,500.00 — Support zone from earlier this week
19,275.00 — Prior VAL and multi-session pivot from April
Final Note on Today
It’s the end of a news-heavy, volatile week — and today could go either way.
Whether we get a balanced drift or a sharp move, I’ll trade only what’s clear. No forcing it today.
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