Daily Brief - Friday, 4/11/25
Inflation's cooling, earnings are warming up, and China just cranked tariffs to 125%. The market's calm—for now—but with sentiment swinging on headlines, don’t blink or you’ll miss the next move.
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
Friday - 4/11/25
Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, marking the start of the first-quarter earnings season.
8:30am EST - US PPI YoY (Expected: 3.3%, Actual: 2.7%)
8:30am EST - US PPI MoM (Expected: 0.2%, Actual: -0.4%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI YoY (Expected: 3.6%, Actual: 3.3%)
8:30am EST - US Core PPI MoM (Expected: 0.3%, Actual: -0.1%)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 54)
📈 Prior Session Stats & Analysis - Thursday, 4/10/25
After back-to-back wild sessions, Thursday offered something that actually resembled... a breather.
But don’t be fooled — while the pace may have slowed, the 952-point range still delivered plenty of action. A clean morning selloff, a strong bounce off 18,000, and a choppy, indecisive afternoon made it a day of two halves.
🔢 Session Stats
Session Open: 18,790.75
Session High: 18,871.50
Session Low: 17,919.00
Session Close: 18,483.00
Settlement: 18,484.50
Value Area High (VAH): 18,699.00
Point of Control (POC): 18,473.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 18,251.00
Range: 952.5 pts, 3810 ticks
Estimated Volume: 977,049
Open Interest (Prelim): -6,003 (NQM25)
📊 Market Profile View – 30-Min Chart
Thursday formed a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the downside, but there’s more nuance than the label suggests.
The Initial Balance (IB) was around 300 points — small by recent standards, though still large by historical norms.
While we saw clean downside extension in the morning, the value area remained in the upper half of the range.
Price found strong support at the 18,000 level — not once, but twice — and spent the rest of the day reclaiming lost ground.
We closed above the middle of the range, and no aggressive selling showed up into the close, which could suggest bullish continuation today.
This was one of those sessions that punishes assumptions. It started off looking like a trend-down day… and then flipped the script.
🕵️♂️ 5-Minute Chart Breakdown – NY Session
The morning selloff was clean and orderly, offering good momentum setups for traders who stayed patient.
Initial support at 18,600 failed, and once that level broke, price accelerated downward toward the 18,000 zone.
Buyers stepped in hard around 18,000, defending the level twice — once early and again around 1:20pm ET.
The afternoon session got messy — lots of back and forth, with 18,600 flipping into resistance.
That 18,600 area is worth watching today — it’s already acted as both support and resistance within the same session.
🔎 Volume & Participation
Open Interest: -6,003 — That’s the third straight day of declining open interest. Could be shorts covering, could be longs from Wednesday bailing — tough to say without more context.
Volume: 977k contracts — still high, but a step down from previous days.
Range: 952.5 points — and somehow, it felt like a calmer session. A reminder of how wild this week has been.
💭 Final Thoughts
Yesterday was a reprieve — not quiet, but less chaotic.
The strong rejection of 18,000 and failure of sellers to press into the close gives us something to work with today. But let’s not forget: the macro environment is still fragile, and headlines can still flip sentiment in a heartbeat.
Stay selective. Watch 18,600 and 18,000. Don’t get lulled into thinking we’re back to “normal” just because a 950-point day felt manageable.
🚦 Pre-Market Plan – Friday, April 11, 2025
As of this writing, overnight inventory is long, sitting roughly +120 points above yesterday’s settlement — but still well within Thursday’s range. Barring any surprises, we’re set to open in-balance.
This morning’s PPI data came in below expectations, mirroring Thursday’s soft CPI print. But the market barely blinked. In a different environment, these reports would have triggered a strong reaction. The takeaway?
Inflation and the Fed are no longer driving the market narrative.
This is a tariff-driven market now — and all eyes are on trade tensions.
🧠 Bias & Mindset
I’m coming in today with a neutral bias. Honestly, I don’t have a strong read on what to expect — and I’m okay with that. My plan is to be patient, observe early price action, and wait for momentum and direction before putting on any trades.
Also worth noting:
📌 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment drops at 10:00 AM ET.
This report does tend to move the market. Make sure you’re flat at least 5 minutes beforehand — liquidity will dry up, and it’s not the time to be stuck in a position.
🌍 What the Market’s Watching
🇨🇳 China Tariffs
Yesterday, China announced a 125% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 12. The U.S. believes this will back China into a corner, forcing negotiation. China believes it can wait out the pressure and let U.S. economic strain push Trump to fold.
Right now, we’re in a global standoff — and the market is watching closely to see who blinks first.
💼 Earnings Season Begins
Q1 earnings kick off today with reports from major financials.
This season may not be rough because of earnings themselves, but because of forward guidance — or the lack of it. Due to the ongoing tariff uncertainty, many executives may be unwilling or unable to offer guidance with confidence.
When companies don’t give guidance, investors hesitate.
And when investors hesitate, risk shifts to the downside.
This could create volatility around earnings — not just from results, but from the absence of clarity.
🔍 Key Levels I’m Watching Today
Sharing a few levels below — but take them with a grain of salt. Yesterday we saw some structure return, but we’re still in a headline-driven market. If news drops, levels won’t hold. Be patient. Let the market prove that a level matters before you act on it.
“I’d rather be late on my entry and early on my exit than the opposite.”
19,000
This was strong resistance on March 3rd.
Wednesday’s short squeeze broke above it, but price couldn’t hold in the overnight session. Yesterday’s high didn’t even test 18,900. If we auction higher, this area could act as resistance again.
18,600
This level acted as both support and resistance yesterday.
It’s now a clear pivot zone I’ll be watching closely for potential reaction.
18,000
Buyers stepped in aggressively here yesterday — twice.
That’s a sign this level matters to higher timeframe participants.
If we revisit this zone and break below it, those buyers could flip into sellers, accelerating any downside move.
📝 A Note on My Trading Results
You may have noticed I haven’t been posting my trading results this week. Here’s why:
I haven’t been trading the combine account.
Instead, I’ve been trading larger accounts that I can’t publicly share here (see the About page for more on that). The combine account only allows for a $2,000 drawdown, and in a market with this level of volatility, that’s simply not enough to trade responsibly.
When you’re seeing 500+ point moves in minutes and pullbacks of 100–200 points, it’s not realistic to use tight stops and stay within such a narrow risk window. You either end up trading scared or getting chopped up.
So until things calm down, I’ll be sitting out of that account.
I’ll resume posting results once the volatility comes back to earth.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
You don’t have to trade this market.
Cash is a position. And sometimes, it's the best one.
When volatility’s high and headlines are everywhere, it’s easy to feel the urge to “do something.” But here’s a simple rule that’s always served me well:
The higher the VIX, the more experience it takes to trade effectively.
Yes — volatility brings opportunity. But it also brings risk, emotional reactivity, and account volatility. If you’re trading a small account or just not feeling dialed in, it’s perfectly okay to observe and wait.
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