Daily Brief - Friday, 3/21/25
NQ experienced high volatility yesterday, offering several strong momentum trading opportunities. With NQH25 expiration and OPEX today, the question is: will we see a repeat of that volatility?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
Upcoming News
No news releases today.
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Thursday, 3/20/25
Session Open: 19,786.50
Session High: 20,105.00
Session VAH: 19,987.75
Session POC: 19,893.75
Session VAL: 19,800.00
Session Low: 19,756.00
Session Close: 19,881.25
Session Settlement: 19,879.25
Session Range: 349 pts, 1396 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +2,025 (NQ) / -45,180 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 723,609
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Neutral Day, with minor range extensions on both sides of the Initial Balance, ultimately closing near the midpoint of the session range.
There were several solid momentum trading opportunities, starting with the trend off the open, followed by a reversal from around 20,090 back down to the prior session’s value area low. While the initial trend was clean and favorable for execution, the reversal move was choppier, requiring more patience and wider stops to trade effectively.
Unfortunately, work demanded my full attention, and I was unable to trade my NQ combine account once again—so I missed those opportunities. Over the years, I’ve learned that trading without full focus is a recipe for disaster. If you can’t give the market your complete attention, it’s better not to trade at all. I know this week’s Trading Results posts have been light, and I appreciate your understanding. My job is priority #1—trading for the blog comes second.
Plan for Today - Friday, 3/21/25
As of this writing, overnight inventory is short, but price action has been mostly flat with a slight downward drift. We’re currently trading less than 100 points below yesterday’s settlement, hovering near the prior session’s low, which has acted as support twice overnight. There’s a possibility we auction below that level before the open, potentially leading to a gap down at the start of the session.
A quick reminder: today is both NQH25 contract expiration and OPEX, with a significant amount of put delta set to expire. That combination can create unpredictable price action, so trade with caution.
I typically sit out this session, as I do every three months when this setup occurs. However, if work allows and I see clean momentum setups, I may take a trade—but I’ll be highly selective and fully content to stay on the sidelines if conditions don’t align. There will be plenty of opportunities next week.
Levels I’ll be watching for today:
20,105 – Yesterday’s high. A break above this level would signal bullish sentiment and potential continuation to the upside.
19,987 – Yesterday’s value area high. A move above this could suggest a retest of the 20,105 high.
19,800 – Yesterday’s value area low. A break below this level may point to a retest of yesterday’s low.
19,756 – Yesterday’s low. A break beneath this would indicate bearish sentiment and potential downside continuation.
19,665 – Support area observed during both Wednesday (3/18) and Tuesday (3/19) sessions.
19,525 – This week’s Weekly Kickoff Low.
19,346 – Last week’s low, a key level to monitor for broader trend context.