Daily Brief - Friday, 3/14/25
NQ has consolidated for four sessions, with overnight inventory following suit for a fifth. Are we gearing up for a breakout, and if so, in which direction?
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Friday - 3/14/25
10:00am EST - University Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Expected: 63.5)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Thursday, 3/13/25
Session Open: 19,574.00
Session High: 19,577.00
Session VAH: 19,425.00
Session POC: 19,331.50
Session VAL: 19,237.75
Session Low: 19,170.00
Session Close: 19,251.50
Session Settlement: 19,249.00
Session Range: 407 pts, 1628 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): -229 (NQ) / +6,801 (MNQ)
Est Volume: 799,059
Prior Session Analysis
Before breaking down yesterday’s session, I want to draw your attention to the daily chart. If you listen to financial media, they’re making it sound like the market is in full-blown apocalypse mode. However, when you zoom out, you’ll notice that the last four sessions in NQ have alternated between up and down days, with price consolidating between 19,600 and 19,200. The selloff has slowed, and some stability has taken hold. Whether this is just a pause in the downtrend before another leg lower or the beginning of a recovery remains to be seen.
Additionally, contract rollover has begun, adding another layer of volatility to the mix. Always take financial media narratives with a grain of salt and start your daily analysis from a top-down perspective. As day traders, it’s easy to get lost in the trees and miss the forest—don’t fall into that trap.
Market Overview – Yesterday’s Session
Yesterday was a Normal Variation Day with range extension to the downside. Notably, NQ broke its 13-day streak of new business, registering a small net loss of -229 contracts—a result of contract rollover:
March 2025 (NQH25) lost -8,651 contracts.
June 2025 (NQM25) gained +8,465 contracts.
September 2025 (NQU25) lost -43 contracts, though this isn’t significant.
Total volume increased compared to the prior session, with 799,059 contracts traded, putting it on par with earlier sessions this week.
Even though yesterday’s session saw another downside range extension, the total range was only 407 points—relatively narrow compared to the larger extensions seen over the past two weeks.
Price Action Breakdown
Yesterday, the prior session’s value area low acted as resistance off the open until 10:30 AM, after which price rejected and broke below the prior session’s low. From that point forward, the prior session’s low became resistance for the remainder of the session.
If you’ve been following this blog for a while, you’ve probably noticed that while Market Profile levels aren’t widely respected by all traders, they prove significant often enough to warrant attention.
One key takeaway: When price moves beyond the prior session’s range and refuses to return, it’s a strong signal that sentiment has shifted for that session. This makes it a reliable level for range-based trades, assuming that aligns with your strategy. Yesterday provided two great short opportunities in front of the prior session’s low.
Notable Observation – Key Buyers Holding 19,400-19,200
One other key piece of data: If you recall my Trading Results from 3/11 and Daily Brief from 3/12, I previously mentioned seeing large buyers on the tape in the 19,400 → 19,200 zone. Yesterday, price found support and reversed twice in this same area.
This suggests that these buyers are still active at this level. Mark this zone on your charts and keep an eye on it if price returns—it could offer strong reversal trade opportunities.
Plan for Today - Friday, 3/14/25
As of this writing, overnight inventory is heavily long, with price trading 250+ points above yesterday’s settlement. This aligns with the consolidation pattern discussed earlier on the daily chart. Currently, we remain in-balance within yesterday’s range but are trading above the prior session’s value area. Price continues to auction higher, and while we are not yet out-of-balance, an additional 50+ point gain before the NY session opens would push NQ over 300+ points above yesterday’s settlement, opening the door for a potential out-of-balance open.
When overnight inventory becomes too one-sided, it’s common for NY session participants to re-balance price off the open, sometimes triggering a reversal. Be on alert for this scenario if we open at these elevated levels.
If we open in-balance, my approach will be to stay patient and wait for clear sentiment confirmation before taking trades. A strong sign would be price moving above the prior session’s high and holding as support. Ideally, we see momentum-driven moves outside the prior session’s value area.
If we open out-of-balance, my plan remains mostly the same, but I’ll also have opening range breakout trades on my radar, and gap rules will come into play.
Additionally, we have the University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Report at 10 AM. Last month, this release triggered a sharp sell-off, so I recommend staying flat ahead of the news—I certainly will. Stay alert and prepared for potential volatility.
Levels I will be watching today:
19,766 - last week’s low and acted as resistance in prior sessions this week.
19,577 - yesterday’s high. If price auctions above this and holds, that would indicate a more bullish sentiment for today and I will be looking for long setups.
19,425 → 19,237 - price spent move of its time in this range in yesterday’s session and it will be a no-trade zone for me today.
19,400 → 19,200 - buyers have appeared in this area multiple times this week to reject lower prices and auction price back up. I will be watching to see if they reappear today, if price enters this area. Since it’s in the value area it will still be a no-trade area but still worth watching for information purposes.
19,170 - yesterday’s low, just like the high, if price auctions below this and holds, it indicates a bearish sentiment for today and I will be looking for short setups.