Daily Brief - Friday, 2/21/25
NQ looking bullish on the higher timeframe charts. Can it sustain the momentum to break the all-time high of 22,450 or will it reject at the top of the range and head back down?
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals. Nothing posted on The Shmuts blog should be construed as investment advice. Do your own research.
TLDR:
Another “V” shaped day yesterday in NQ with a sharp selloff off the open but buyers aggressively defended the 22,000 area and auctioned price back up for the remainder of the session.
The Daily chart for NQ looks very bullish to me, I believe NQ makes a run at all-time highs soon, maybe today. Whether it can break above and hold, or reject again at the top of the range we will have to wait to see.
Small amount of new business yesterday in NQ with only +341 contracts added on high volume. What happens today in regard to new business will give a good indication if NQ can break and hold above all-time highs.
We have new events this morning after the open, at 9:45am and 10am EST, be careful not to get caught in trades when these are released. It’s very easy to get caught in trading the open and lose track of these coming out shortly after.
Upcoming News
Friday - 2/21/25
9:45am EST - US S&P Services PMI Flash (Expected: 53)
9:45am EST - US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash (Expected: 51.2)
10:00am EST - University of Michigan Sentiment Final (Expected: 67.8)
10:00am EST - US Existing Home Sales (Expected: 4.13M)
Prior Session Stats and Analysis - Thursday, 2/20/25
Session Open: 22,209.50
Session High: 22,225.50
Session VAH: 22,109.75
Session POC: 22,072.25
Session VAL: 22,020.00
Session Low: 21,951.00
Session Close: 22,144.75
Session Settlement: 22,141.75
Session Range: 205.50 pts, 822 ticks
OI Change (Prelim): +341 (NQ)
Est Volume: 556,719
Prior Session Analysis
Yesterday’s session was a Normal day. There was a reasonably wide Initial Balance set in the first 45 min of the session of 225 points and there was no range extension with all remaining price action staying inside of the IB.
Another “V” shaped day with a sharp selloff off the open, buyers aggressively defended the 22,000 area for the first two hours of the session. Price then gradually auctioned back up for the remainder of the session.
An opening range breakout trade to the downside was the best trade of the day. Outside of that the bounces off 22,000 were good long opportunities. Past the first two hours of the session price action was difficult to find good entries and exits.
NQ saw a very small amount of new business yesterday with +341 contracts added on substantial volume.
The higher timeframe Daily chart looks very bullish to me, and I believe NQ may make a run at the all-time high very soon of 22,450.
Plan for Today - Friday, 2/21/25
At the time of this writing, overnight inventory is long +80 points above yesterday’s close and slightly above yesterday’s range.
If this bullish price action continues into the open we will open out-of-balance with a gap to the upside. Gap rules will apply.
An opening range breakout trade to the upside will be a trade I will be looking for off the open if we open above the prior day’s range.
We have news events at both 9:45am and 10am this morning. Keep an eye on the clock and avoid getting caught in trades during these news releases. The ladder will empty right before each, make sure to get out no later than 5 min before so there’s liquidity.
Levels I will be watching today:
22,450 - area of the all-time high set back on Dec 16th.
22,320 to 22,300 - area of strong resistance both in Wednesday and Tuesday’s sessions. Price will need to break through this to continue higher.
22,110 - yesterday’s value area high region, was strong support in Wednesday and Tuesday’s sessions. If price pulls back off the open I would look here for a potential reversal.
22,000 - buyers have stepped in strongly to defend this area.